Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 25

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao (Vila Nova de Famalicao)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	TV Start
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4


	Famalicão		Arouca

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	1.65	3.95	4.95	Watch
	1.69	4.03	5.57
	1.65	3.91	5.25	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5	Watch
	1.67	3.92	5.68	Watch
	1.71	3.9	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.71)	3.83 ↓ (3.9)	5.07 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Famalicão
56.5%

Draw
24.8%

Arouca
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

24.2%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

23.3%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	9.5%	14.3%

Famalicão - Arouca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Famalicão (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Arouca (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Famalicão will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 6 - 75%). Arouca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 8. Pena M. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 77. Joujou A. 12. Elisor S.	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 6. Monteiro D. 5. Popovic B. 3. Fontan J. (C) 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
9. Abubakar U. 18. Beney R. 2. Garcia 15. Mamageishvili O. 47. Pastor G. 28. Pedro Bondo 3. Realpe L. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)	44. Dante A. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 23. Nandin D. 11. Puche 4. Rocha M. 20. Santiago Perez J. 2. Silva J. 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Oliveira H.	Seabra V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Barbero I. 🟨,
61', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
66', Gil Dias ↓, Beney R. ↑,
66', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
67', Pena M. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
75', Trezza A. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Pinheiro R. ⚽,
83', Monteiro D. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
83', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
84', Lee H. ↓, Puche ↑,
84', De Amorim M. 🟨,
89', Joujou A. ↓, Realpe L. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Famalicão is the team to beat.

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury) Sorriso (Yellow Cards) Van de Looi T. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive) Pedro Santos (Inactive)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha (Inactive)

There are questionable in Arouca: Gozalbez P. (Injury) Sanchez J. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.8:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
01.03.26	Rio Ave - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Famalicão	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Famalicão - AVS	3:1 ✺
01.02.26	Gil Vicente - Famalicão	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLWL
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Arouca - Nacional	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Casa Pia - Arouca	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Rio Ave - Arouca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
05.10.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:1
05.04.25	Arouca - Famalicão	1:2
09.11.24	Famalicão - Arouca	0:0
23.02.24	Arouca - Famalicão	3:2
22.09.23	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0
03.04.23	Famalicão - Arouca	0:1
10.10.22	Arouca - Famalicão	4:1

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