Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 26

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio D. Afonso Henriques (Guimarães)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Vitoria Guimarães		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.25	3.8
	1.91	3.5	3.7	Watch
	2.04	3.34	4.17
	2	3.25	3.8
	2.03	3.44	3.7	Watch
	2.04	3.35	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.89)	3.35 ↓ (3.43)	3.83 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitoria Guimarães
47.3%

Draw
28.1%

Paços de Ferreira
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

27.3%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

26.6%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: Vitoria Guimarães will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Guimarães has the most likely position - 5 (42.95%), project points - 52, currently - 40, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), not chance of win league.

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 17 (40.73%), project points - 24, currently - 16, a good chance of relegated (82%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 45, small importance 16, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 4.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Guimarães will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Guimarães: Bamba I. (Injury) Fernandes J. (Injury) Varela B. (Muscle Injury) Ze Carlos (Foot Injury)

Last 23 head-to-head matches Guimarães won 12 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 39-26.

Including matches at home between the teams Guimarães won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 25-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
18.03.23	Benfica - Vitoria Guimarães	5:1 ✺
11.03.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:2 ✺
05.03.23	Santa Clara - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
27.02.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1 ✺
19.02.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWWT
- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
18.03.23	Arouca - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
11.03.23	Paços de Ferreira - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
06.03.23	Casa Pia - Paços de Ferreira	2:1 ✺
26.02.23	Paços de Ferreira - Boavista	1:3 ✺
18.02.23	Estoril Praia - Paços de Ferreira	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.10.22	Paços de Ferreira - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
15.04.22	Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira	4:0
04.12.21	Paços de Ferreira - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
21.02.21	Paços de Ferreira - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
02.10.20	Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira	1:0
08.03.20	Paços de Ferreira - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
29.09.19	Vitoria Guimarães - Paços de Ferreira	1:0

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