The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Arouca 43.3%
Draw 29%
Paços de Ferreira 27.7%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
48.8%
27.8%
23.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49.6%
27.4%
23%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.
Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
93.3%
0%
6.7%
Arouca - Paços de Ferreira Predictions
Users Predictions:
Arouca will win
(14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%). Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
Arouca has the most likely position - 5 (26.68%), project points - 50, currently - 37, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 17 (42.12%), project points - 24, currently - 15, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of qualify for ucl.
This event has quality44, small importance16, small match rating30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0.
Arouca is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Paços de Ferreira could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Arouca: Vitinho
(Injury)
There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Djalo M.
(Injury)
Last 15 head-to-head matches Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-21.
Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.
Portugal
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