Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2024, Wednesday

Location: Fehérvári úti stadion (Paks)

Referee: Dmitriev D. (Blr)


	Paksi SE		Mornar Bar

	1	X	2
	1.25	5	11	Watch
	1.27	5.25	9.75
	1.25	5.5	11	Watch
	1.25	5.25	13.74
	1.28	5.19	11.13	Watch
	1.26	5.5	11.2	Watch
	1.25	5.5	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.57)	5.31 ↑ (3.9)	11.26 ↑ (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paksi SE
74.1%

Draw
17.6%

Mornar Bar
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

23.7%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

22.9%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paksi SE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paksi SE's performance.

Mornar Bar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mornar Bar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (-13%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paksi SE that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mornar Bar than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mornar Bar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	3%	15.2%

Paksi SE - Mornar Bar Predictions

Users Predictions: Paksi SE will win (25 of 30 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.99% – 96.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Szappanos P. (G) 23. Otvos B. 2. Kinyik A. 30. Szabo J. 11. Osvath A. 5. Vecsei B. 21. Papp K. 22. Windecker J. 12. Vas G. 10. Haraszti Z. 13. Bode D. (C)	12. Popovic S. (G) 2. Stevanovic S. 32. Ljutica V. 16. Mitrovic F. 33. Vukotic B. 4. Kaludjerovic A. (C) 18. Zoric D. 8. Djurisic M. 10. Kishi K. 55. Ondong-Mba C. 20. Vusurovic M.
Substitutes
8. Balogh B. 77. Gevay Z. 19. Horvath K. 17. Kocsis B. 20. Kovacs K. 24. Lenzser B. 26. Mezei S. 14. Silye E. 25. Simon B. (G) 27. Szabo B. 29. Toth B. 15. Zimonyi D.	7. Cetkovic M. 11. Kolundzic A. 1. Pavlicic D. (G) 94. Perovic L. 97. Seratlic E. 80. Trifunovic V. 9. Vujacic A. 17. Vukovic N.
Coaches
Bognar G.	Medigovic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Ondong-Mba C. 🟥,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Vecsei B. ↓, Szabo B. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Bode D. ⚽, Windecker J. (A),
60', Djurisic M. 🟨,
62', Djurisic M. 🟨,
65', Kaludjerovic A. 🟨,
66', Kishi K. ↓, Vukovic N. ↑,
66', Vukotic B. ↓, Seratlic E. ↑,
66', Papp K. ↓, Mezei S. ↑,
73', Bode D. ↓, Toth B. ↑,
73', Windecker J. ↓, Zimonyi D. ↑,
82', Haraszti Z. ↓, Kocsis B. ↑,
85', Zoric D. ↓, Cetkovic M. ↑,
90+2', Popovic S. 🟨,
90+3', Vusurovic M. ↓, Trifunovic V. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 0, Szabo B. (Pen),
90+10', 3 - 0, Toth B. ⚽, Mezei S. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Paksi SE in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Mornar Bar is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mornar Bar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Paksi SE is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
04.08.24	Paksi SE - Ujpest	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	AEK Larnaca - Paksi SE	0:2 ✺
Hungarian NB I
28.07.24	Diósgyőri - Paksi SE	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	Paksi SE - AEK Larnaca	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
18.07.24	Corvinul Hunedoara - Paksi SE	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 WWTWW
- FK Mornar Bar
Montenegrin First League
04.08.24	Mornar Bar - Otrant	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.24	Mornar Bar - Radnički 1923	3:1 penalties ✺
25.07.24	Radnički 1923 - Mornar Bar	1:0 ✺
18.07.24	Dinamo Tbilisi - Mornar Bar	1:1 ✺
11.07.24	Mornar Bar - Dinamo Tbilisi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 LWLTW

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