Match Info

Serie B - Round 3

Date: 7 September 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Palermo		Sampdoria

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	5.5	Watch
	1.58	4.00	5.25
	1.55	3.85	5.1	Watch
	1.63	3.99	5.98
	1.59	3.87	5.68	Watch
	1.61	3.85	5.9
	1.59	3.9	5.95	Watch
	1.6	4	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.84)	3.91 ↑ (3.35)	5.6 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
59.2%

Draw
24%

Sampdoria
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

27.9%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.5%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palermo's performance.

Sampdoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Palermo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87%	8.7%	4.3%

Palermo - Sampdoria Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Sampdoria (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 2 - 50%). Sampdoria (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perin M. (G) 27. Pierozzi N. 13. Bani M. (C) 32. Ceccaroni P. 3. Augello T. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 7. Strefezza G. 23. Hernani 17. Johnsen D. 20. Pohjanpalo J.	1. Vindahl P. (G) 29. Di Pardo A. 3. Gartenmann S. 15. Delli Carri F. 7. Cicconi M. 45. Makoumbou A. 16. Verschaeren Y. 6. Henderson L. (C) 20. Sinani D. 99. Tutino G. 10. Insigne L.
Substitutes
93. Barba F. 33. Bozzolan A. 84. Cassandro T. 24. Estevez N. 14. Fortin M. (G) 99. Gabrielloni A. 6. Gomes C. 11. Gyasi E. 96. Magnani G. 12. Nespola M. (G) 5. Palumbo A. 9. Vavassori D.	28. Abildgaard O. 11. Begic T. 25. Ferrari A. 12. Krastev A. (G) 96. Massolo S. (G) 39. Mezzotero L. 41. Mondani N. 40. Piermattei F. 35. Rodella L.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Corradi B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Strefezza G. ⚽, Augello T. (A),
18', Henderson L. 🟨,
18', Insigne L. 🟨,
21', Strefezza G. ↓, Vavassori D. ↑,
33', 2 - 0, Pohjanpalo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hernani ↓, Palumbo A. ↑,
47', Bani M. 🟨,
53', Sinani D. ↓, Begic T. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Insigne L. ⚽,
65', Ranocchia F. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
65', Pierozzi N. ↓, Cassandro T. ↑,
70', Insigne L. ↓, Abildgaard O. ↑,
83', Verschaeren Y. ↓, Mezzotero L. ↑,
84', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Gabrielloni A. ↑,
90+2', Palumbo A. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 1, Palumbo A. ⚽, Johnsen D. (A),
90+6', Cicconi M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2.

Palermo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sampdoria has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Sampdoria may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Palermo is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Palermo: Joronen J. (Injury)

There will not play in Sampdoria: Conti F. (Inactive) Lauritsen T. (Injury) Meijer B. (Injury) Ravanelli L. (Injury) Sekulov N. (Inactive)

We predict that Palermo will win today's game, with odds of 1.76.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:15. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.5:0.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Palermo: 42.72% Sampdoria: 2.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	10:5	5	13
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	5:9	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Palermo - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 50.8%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Coppa Italia
03.09.26	Palermo - Mantova	5:2 ✺
Italian Serie B
30.08.26	Arezzo - Palermo	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Palermo - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.26	Juventus - Palermo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWL
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
29.08.26	Sampdoria - Juve Stabia	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Cesena - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Cremonese - Sampdoria	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.26	Sampdoria - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Sampdoria - Taverne	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
10.02.26	Sampdoria - Palermo	3:3
12.12.25	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:0
08.03.25	Sampdoria - Palermo	1:1
24.11.24	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:1
17.05.24	Palermo - Sampdoria	2:0
06.04.24	Palermo - Sampdoria	2:2
04.11.23	Sampdoria - Palermo	1:0

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