Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Olympic Stadium of Athens (Athens)

Referee: Lambrechts E. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub 4
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3, SportKlub 4
Slovenia	SportKlub 3


	Panathinaikos		Shakhtar Donetsk

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.55
	2.68	3.25	2.58
	2.74	3.37	2.66
	2.98	3.38	2.31	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.5
	2.93	3.48	2.45	Watch
	2.7	3.22	2.69
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.6)	3.35 ↑ (3.1)	2.53 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panathinaikos
34.8%

Draw
28.1%

Shakhtar Donetsk
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

29.6%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.4%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panathinaikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Shakhtar Donetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	25%	47.7%

Panathinaikos - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Panathinaikos will win (votes: 12 - 29.3%). Shakhtar will win (votes: 20 - 48.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 22%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shakhtar: 33.5% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Panathinaikos (votes: 5 - 25%). Shakhtar (votes: 11 - 55%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Shakhtar (5.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Shakhtar (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Shakhtar (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Shakhtar (1.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Panathinaikos (1.72) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Panathinaikos (votes: 6 - 21.4%). Shakhtar (votes: 18 - 64.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Dragowski B. (G) 27. Kotsiras G. 14. Palmer-Brown E. 5. Touba A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 20. Maksimovic N. 10. Tete 4. Chirivella P. 28. Pellistri F. 19. Swiderski K. 31. Djuricic F. (C)	31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. 22. Matviienko M. (C) 13. Henrique P. 27. Ocheretko O. 6. Marlon Gomes 30. Alisson 10. Sudakov G. 39. Newerton 19. Kaua Elias
Substitutes
30. Bregou A. 26. Fikaj E. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 15. Ingason S. I. 21. Jedvaj T. 29. Jeremejeff A. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 40. Lafont A. (G) 17. Mancini D. 25. Mladenovic F. 6. Siopis M. 9. Zaroury A.	16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 7. Eguinaldo 74. Faryna M. 23. Fesyun K. (G) 18. Ghram A. 20. Glushchenko A. 26. Konoplya Y. 29. Nazaryna Y. 38. Pedrinho 9. Shved M. 48. Tvardovskyi D. (G)
Coaches
Vitoria R.	Turan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Marlon Gomes 🟨,
20', Chirivella P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marlon Gomes ↓, Bondarenko A. ↑,
46', Kyriakopoulos G. 🟨,
55', Chirivella P. ↓, Siopis M. ↑,
55', Djuricic F. ↓, Gnezda Cerin A. ↑,
55', Kyriakopoulos G. ↓, Mladenovic F. ↑,
68', Tete ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
73', Kaua Elias ↓, Eguinaldo ↑,
73', Alisson ↓, Pedrinho ↑,
76', Eguinaldo ↓, Shved M. ↑,
81', Swiderski K. ↓, Jeremejeff A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, Panathinaikos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Shakhtar is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shakhtar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Shakhtar has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panathinaikos FC
UEFA Champions League
30.07.25	Panathinaikos - Glasgow Rangers	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	Glasgow Rangers - Panathinaikos	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.25	Westerlo - Panathinaikos	1:3 ✺
12.07.25	Panathinaikos - Braga	1:2 ✺
09.07.25	Panathinaikos - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLWLT
- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
03.08.25	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Beşiktaş	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Beşiktaş - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:4 ✺
17.07.25	Ilves - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Brinje-Grosuplje - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTW

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