Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 17 July 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Aslam U. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	19:00	Ilves TV
Turkey	19:00	S Sport+
Ukraine	19:00	UPL TV


	Ilves		Shakhtar Donetsk

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.75	1.44	Watch
	6.5	4.75	1.42	Watch
	5.9	4.7	1.44	Watch
	6.68	4.54	1.44
	6.66	4.19	1.48	Watch
	6	4.6	1.4
	6.23	4.76	1.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.21 ↑ (4.2)	4.61 ↑ (4.22)	1.44 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
15%

Draw
20.3%

Shakhtar Donetsk
64.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.1%

22%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

21.3%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ilves's form might have worsened.

Shakhtar Donetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shakhtar Donetsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ilves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.7%	13%	78.3%

Ilves - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.5 - Shakhtar (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Shakhtar Donetsk will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Virtanen O. (C) 22. Maenpaa A. 16. Miettunen T. 24. Kumpu V. 13. Wallius K. 42. Aspegren F. 14. Popovitch A. 18. Ulundu V. 30. Kanga J. 9. Hytonen T. 8. Stjopin M.	31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 18. Ghram A. 5. Bondar V. (C) 16. Azarovi I. 27. Ocheretko O. 7. Eguinaldo 21. Bondarenko A. 38. Pedrinho 39. Newerton 2. Traore L.
Substitutes
27. Akinyemi A. 19. Jukkola O. 12. Krkalic F. (G) 21. Moisio J. 3. Rale M. 10. Riski Ro. 17. Soderback M. 20. Tiitinen O. 5. Vaisanen S. 32. Vayrynen L. (G) 7. Veteli J.	30. Alisson 23. Fesyun K. (G) 12. Gocholeishvili G. 13. Henrique P. 19. Kaua Elias 11. Kevin 26. Konoplya Y. 6. Marlon Gomes 22. Matviienko M. 29. Nazaryna Y. 9. Shved M. 10. Sudakov G.
Coaches
Rantanen J.	Turan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Tobias V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Eguinaldo ↓, Shved M. ↑,
55', Tobias V. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
58', Popovitch A. ↓, Veteli J. ↑,
58', Ulundu V. ↓, Jukkola O. ↑,
68', Bondarenko A. ↓, Sudakov G. ↑,
68', Traore L. ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
68', Stjopin M. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
68', Aspegren F. ↓, Tiitinen O. ↑,
70', Jukkola O. 🟨,
81', Pedrinho ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
83', Kanga J. ↓, Soderback M. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-6. 2nd leg.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Shakhtar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shakhtar is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ilves won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
14.07.25	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	3:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Ilves	6:0 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.07.25	SJK - Ilves	1:1 ✺
02.07.25	Ilves - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Haka - Ilves	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLTWW
- Shakhtar Donetsk
Club Friendly
11.07.25	Brinje-Grosuplje - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Ilves	6:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Slovácko	1:1 ✺
04.07.25	Gorica - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
24.05.25	Rukh Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Ilves	6:0

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