Match Info

Super League - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Panetolikos Stadium (Agrinio)

Referee: Tsakalidis A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovenia	Sportklub


	Panetolikos		Panathinaikos

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.53	Watch
	6	4	1.55
	5.98	4.04	1.59
	10.57	1.58	2.91	Watch
	6.45	4.05	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.95 ↑ (5.98)	3.53 ↓ (3.98)	1.82 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panetolikos
14.8%

Draw
29%

Panathinaikos
56.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.7%

23.6%

60.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

22.8%

62.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panetolikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Panathinaikos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panetolikos than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panathinaikos than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Panathinaikos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	16.7%	61.1%

Panetolikos - Panathinaikos Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Panetolikos will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Panathinaikos will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Panathinaikos: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Panetolikos (votes: 3 - 30%). Panathinaikos (votes: 7 - 70%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Chaves L. (G) 45. Galiatsos D. 16. Sielis C. 49. Stajic N. 41. Bouchalakis A. 71. Michalak K. 77. Nikolaou E. 22. Esteban Diego 10. Matan A. 11. Nkololo B. 9. Aguirre J.	40. Lafont A. (G) 2. Calabria D. 14. Palmer-Brown E. 15. Ingason S. I. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 4. Chirivella P. 16. Gnezda Cerin A. 10. Tete 11. Bakasetas A. 31. Djuricic F. 19. Swiderski K.
Substitutes
23. Agapakis G. 14. Aleksic K. 8. Belevonis C. 20. Chura J. 4. Garcia U. 6. Kontouris S. 3. Manos C. 15. Manrique C. 35. Mavrias Ch. 1. Pardalos M. (G) 7. Smyrlis L. 12. Zivkovic Z. (G)	29. Jeremejeff A. 70. Kotsaris K. (G) 27. Kotsiras G. 17. Mancini D. 25. Mladenovic F. 72. Pantovic M. 8. Sanches R. 6. Siopis M. 41. Stamellos L. (G) 20. Taborda V. 5. Touba A. 9. Zaroury A.
Coaches
Petrakis G.	Kontis C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Aguirre J. (Pen),
44', Bouchalakis A. ↓, Kontouris S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Nkololo B. 🟨,
55', Gnezda Cerin A. ↓, Sanches R. ↑,
56', Djuricic F. ↓, Zaroury A. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Tete ⚽,
70', Michalak K. ↓, Smyrlis L. ↑,
70', Aguirre J. ↓, Aleksic K. ↑,
75', Swiderski K. ↓, Jeremejeff A. ↑,
76', Jeremejeff A. 🟨,
78', Nikolaou E. ↓, Manrique C. ↑,
78', Zaroury A. 🟨,
83', Calabria D. 🟨,
83', Chirivella P. ↓, Siopis M. ↑,
83', Bakasetas A. ↓, Pantovic M. ↑,
90+1', Kontouris S. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 2, Jeremejeff A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Panetolikos won 0.

Panetolikos has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Panathinaikos has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Panetolikos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Panathinaikos is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Panetolikos: Apostolopoulos A. (Injury) Garcia U. (Red Card) Mavrias Ch. (Muscle Injury) Mladen S. (Injury)

There will not play in Panathinaikos: Kyriopoulos G. (Knee Injury) Pellistri F. (Knock)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Panetolikos won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:35. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Panetolikos won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Panetolikos
Greek Cup
24.09.25	AEK Athens - Panetolikos	2:1 ✺
Greek Super League
20.09.25	PAOK - Panetolikos	0:0 ✺
Greek Cup
17.09.25	Panetolikos - Aris	0:1 ✺
Greek Super League
13.09.25	Panetolikos - Volos	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Aris - Panetolikos	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 LTLLW
- Panathinaikos FC
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Young Boys - Panathinaikos	1:4 ✺
Greek Super League
21.09.25	Panathinaikos - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1 ✺
Greek Cup
17.09.25	Panathinaikos - Athens Kallithea	1:0 ✺
Greek Super League
14.09.25	AE Kifisia - Panathinaikos	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Panathinaikos - Levadiakos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Greek Super League
01.03.25	Panathinaikos - Panetolikos	2:0
24.11.24	Panetolikos - Panathinaikos	1:2
07.01.24	Panathinaikos - Panetolikos	2:1
16.09.23	Panetolikos - Panathinaikos	0:5
06.03.23	Panathinaikos - Panetolikos	2:0
09.11.22	Panetolikos - Panathinaikos	0:1
19.02.22	Panetolikos - Panathinaikos	1:0

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