Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 15

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Aukstaitijos Stadium (Panevėžys)

Referee: Valikonis R. (Ltu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Lithuania	LNK


	Panevėžys		Banga Gargždai

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.35
	2.68	3.1	2.38	Watch
	2.78	3.45	2.52
	2.74	3.27	2.46	Watch
	2.7	3	2.45
	2.71	2.99	2.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.34)	3.15 ↑ (3.13)	2.43 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panevėžys
33.6%

Draw
28.9%

Banga Gargždai
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panevėžys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Panevėžys's form might have worsened.

Banga Gargždai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Banga Gargždai's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panevėžys than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Panevėžys, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Banga Gargždai than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Banga Gargždai, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Panevėžys - Banga Gargždai Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Panevėžys will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Banga will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cerniauskas V. (C) 7. Veliulis E. 13. Kerkez S. 15. Janusevskis J. 95. Bopesu J. 17. Kurtsev O. 26. Simon J. 6. Ramanauskas M. 80. Elivelton 8. Kouadio S. 28. Burdzilauskas E.	14. Krynskyi V. (G) 13. Zebrauskas N. 27. Henning R. 3. Malzinskas D. 19. Antuzis V. (C) 45. Sato M. 11. Filipavicius R. 51. Cadu 30. Cande U. 47. Fosuhene Asare K. 9. Appiah A.
Substitutes
21. Adah J. 27. Asamoah K. 34. Asante I. 16. Bacanin M. 66. Balsys D. 22. Brazinskas A. (G) 45. Delevic M. 11. Grajfoner L. 25. Lukosevicius I. 9. Muratovic E. 12. Valius L. (G)	22. Ambrazaitis M. 17. Andrejev M. 8. Camara R. 12. Grinkevicius L. (G) 20. Levsinas A. 10. Magdusauskas V. 7. Norvilas D. 99. Olugbogi A. 21. Praleika S. 6. Simao J. 77. Venckus I. 1. Vitkauskas A. (G)
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Marques Afonso D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', Kerkez S. 🟨,
14', 1 - 0, Bopesu J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Simon J. ↓, Asamoah K. ↑,
64', Kouadio S. ↓, Asante I. ↑,
64', Kurtsev O. ↓, Grajfoner L. ↑,
71', Fosuhene Asare K. ↓, Olugbogi A. ↑,
74', Zebrauskas N. 🟨,
75', Appiah A. ↓, Venckus I. ↑,
77', Elivelton ↓, Bacanin M. ↑,
83', Cande U. ↓, Praleika S. ↑,
83', Antuzis V. ↓, Andrejev M. ↑,
83', Filipavicius R. ↓, Camara R. ↑,
84', Bopesu J. 🟨,
90+2', Asante I. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Panevėžys won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Banga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Panevėžys won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:18. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Panevėžys won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Banga	28	11	8	9	32:28	4	41
7	FK Panevezys	28	9	5	14	29:43	-14	32

Last Results with these Odds

Panevėžys - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 38.76%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Banga Gargždai - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 32.22%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Panevėžys
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Panevėžys	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
15.05.26	Riteriai - Panevėžys	FK Panevezys Awarded ✺
10.05.26	Panevėžys - Kauno Žalgiris	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Hegelmann Litauen - Panevėžys	3:2 ✺
03.05.26	Panevėžys - Žalgiris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 W?TLW
- Banga Gargždai
Lithuanian Cup
20.05.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Banga Gargždai	1:0 penalties ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
16.05.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Banga Gargždai	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Banga Gargždai - Transinvest	2:2 ✺
05.05.26	Riteriai - Banga Gargždai	0:4 ✺
01.05.26	Banga Gargždai - Kauno Žalgiris	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
21.03.26	Banga Gargždai - Panevėžys	0:1
18.10.25	Banga Gargždai - Panevėžys	2:2
20.08.25	Panevėžys - Banga Gargždai	1:0
23.05.25	Banga Gargždai - Panevėžys	1:1
30.03.25	Panevėžys - Banga Gargždai	1:1
15.09.24	Banga Gargždai - Panevėžys	2:3
29.06.24	Panevėžys - Banga Gargždai	0:1

Panevėžys - Banga Gargždai: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide