Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 26

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Gżira United		Paola Hibernians

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	2.68	Watch
	2.26	3.33	2.93
	2.58	3.29	2.53	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.8
	2.26	3.18	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.57)	3.22 ↓ (3.33)	2.77 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gżira United
38.8%

Draw
28.3%

Paola Hibernians
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

27.6%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

27.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gżira United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Paola Hibernians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gżira United than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paola Hibernians than the current prediction. (+3%)

Gżira United - Paola Hibernians Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Colombo E. (G) 5. Abela D. 57. Bonilla J. 6. Borg A. (C) 8. Borg B. 13. Failla C. 98. Kante 23. N’sa C. 14. Riascos L. 96. Stojanovic M. 30. Xuereb D.	1. Branescu L. (G) 8. Attard A. 22. Bonnici D. 96. Charleston 27. Cleiton 20. Diakite 18. Halabaku K. 11. Kristensen B. (C) 70. Lima M. 44. Pedrao 5. Shaw K.
Substitutes
9. Andre Carlos 19. Bastic S. 28. Cassar N. 11. Farrugia D. 20. Galea K. (G) 7. Martinez S. 10. Maxuell Samurai 3. Mentz G. 29. Previ A. 1. Sargent K. (G) 22. Van de Bovenkamp M.	. Abela L. 99. Akinbule S. 4. Alfred S. 24. Camilleri C. (G) 6. Caruana L. 13. Debattista M. 23. Ellul M. 17. Hernandez R. 30. Sacco H. (G) 14. Xuereb D. 15. Zammit A.
Coaches
Abdilla D.	Nisevic B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Bonnici D. 🟨,
43', Borg B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Borg B. ↓, Andre Carlos ↑,
64', Riascos L. ↓, Maxuell Samurai ↑,
64', Bonilla J. ↓, Van de Bovenkamp M. ↑,
65', Kante ↓, Bastic S. ↑,
67', Bonnici D. ↓, Alfred S. ↑,
74', Attard A. ↓, Caruana L. ↑,
74', Lima M. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
79', Kristensen B. ↓, Xuereb D. ↑,
79', Halabaku K. ↓, Akinbule S. ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Failla C. ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: ) and 9 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gżira won 2.

Gżira is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hibernians is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Hibernians may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gżira has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gżira won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 28:39. (average 1.4:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gżira won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Hibernians	6	1	2	3	4:9	-5	5
11	Gzira	5	0	1	4	2:13	-11	1

Last Results with these Odds

Gżira United - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 35.82%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Paola Hibernians - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.53%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gżira United
Maltese FA Trophy
03.03.26	Gżira United - Mosta	2:1 ✺
Maltese Premier League
28.02.26	Gżira United - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
25.02.26	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	3:2 ✺
Maltese Premier League
22.02.26	Gżira United - Mosta	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Gżira United	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTWWL
- Paola Hibernians
Maltese Premier League
28.02.26	Paola Hibernians - Valletta	1:1 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
25.02.26	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	3:2 ✺
Maltese Premier League
22.02.26	Floriana - Paola Hibernians	4:1 ✺
18.02.26	Paola Hibernians - Hamrun Spartans	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Marsaxlokk - Paola Hibernians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese FA Trophy
25.02.26	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	3:2
Maltese Premier League
06.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Gżira United	4:1
18.08.25	Paola Hibernians - Gżira United	5:3
19.04.25	Paola Hibernians - Gżira United	1:2
08.02.25	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	1:4
25.08.24	Paola Hibernians - Gżira United	2:0
Club Friendly
26.07.24	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	1:0

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