Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 26 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Limassol)

Referee: Kruzliak I. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paphos		Monaco

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.48
	6.9	4.4	1.5
	7.1	4.34	1.51
	5.16	4.22	1.61	Watch
	6.9	4.4	1.55
	6.5	4.33	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.51 ↑ (5.16)	4.37 ↑ (4.22)	1.53 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
14.8%

Draw
22.1%

Monaco
63.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.4%

22.5%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

21.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.2%	14.3%	75.5%

Paphos - Monaco Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Paphos (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Monaco (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Paphos (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Monaco (1.70) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Paphos (5.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (35 of 44 users predict this - 79.55%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.63% – 91.47%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Paphos (votes: 4 - 18.2%). Monaco (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Michail N. (G) 23. Luckassen D. 4. David Luiz 5. Goldar D. (C) 7. Bruno 26. Sunjic I. 88. Pepe 30. Dragomir V. 17. Orsic M. 8. Quina D. 33. Anderson Silva	1. Hradecky L. (G) 12. Caio Henrique 2. Vanderson 22. Salisu M. 4. Teze J. 15. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 18. Minamino T. 11. Akliouche M. 10. Golovin A. 9. Balogun F.
Substitutes
9. Bassouamina M. 10. Dimata L. 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 99. Papadoudis A. (G) 82. Petrou P. (G) 2. Pileas K.	23. Bamba A. 14. Biereth M. 43. Cabral P. 28. Coulibaly M. 31. Fati A. 17. Idumbo S. 19. Ilenikhena G. 5. Kehrer T. 16. Kohn P. (G) 21. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 8. Pogba P.
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 0 - 1, Minamino T. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
18', 1 - 1, David Luiz ⚽, Orsic M. (A),
21', Camara L. 🟨,
26', 1 - 2, Balogun F. ⚽,
28', Golovin A. 🟨,
45+3', Goldar D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Goldar D. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
56', Carcedo J. 🟨,
57', Quina D. ↓, Jaja ↑,
65', Golovin A. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
65', Camara L. ↓, Coulibaly M. ↑,
69', Anderson Silva ↓, Bassouamina M. ↑,
76', Vanderson ↓, Kehrer T. ↑,
76', Minamino T. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
79', Dragomir V. ↓, Dimata L. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Salisu M. (Own goal),
88', David Luiz 🟨,
89', Balogun F. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
90+1', Salisu M. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.

Paphos is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monaco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Paphos has had a series of home games.

In this match, Monaco is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Correia J. (Red Card) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Dier E. (Calf Injury) Mawissa C. (Hamstring Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
21.11.25	Paphos - Aris Limassol	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Anorthosis - Paphos	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Paphos - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
02.11.25	Paphos - AEL Limassol	1:0 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
30.10.25	Paphos - AEK Larnaca	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WTWWL
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
22.11.25	Rennes - Monaco	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Monaco - Lens	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.11.25	Bodø Glimt - Monaco	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.11.25	Monaco - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Nantes - Monaco	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWLW

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