Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Limassol)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paphos		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	8.5	5.5	1.3
	9.9	5.75	1.31
	9.8	5.58	1.33
	5.93	4.56	1.51	Watch
	10.4	5.53	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.91 ↑ (5.93)	5.38 ↑ (4.56)	1.36 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
10.9%

Draw
18%

Villarreal
71.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.1%

20.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

21%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paphos's form might have worsened.

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paphos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.7%	9.6%	87.7%

Paphos - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Villarreal (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Paphos (2.03) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (64 of 71 users predict this - 90.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.21% – 97.07%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Villarreal will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Paphos (votes: 1 - 3.6%). Villarreal (votes: 23 - 82.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Michail N. (G) 7. Bruno 23. Luckassen D. 4. David Luiz 12. Sema K. 26. Sunjic I. 5. Goldar D. (C) 88. Pepe 17. Orsic M. 30. Dragomir V. 8. Quina D.	1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 8. Foyth J. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 19. Pepe N. 10. Parejo D. (C) 18. Gueye P. 20. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A. 9. Mikautadze G.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 9. Bassouamina M. 10. Dimata L. 1. Gorter J. (G) 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 82. Petrou P. (G) 2. Pileas K.	11. Akhomach I. 3. Altimira A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 4. Marin R. 7. Moreno G. 26. Navarro P. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 16. Partey T. 24. Pedraza A. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G)
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Luckassen D. ⚽, Sema K. (A),
56', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
56', Moleiro A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
63', Perez A. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
63', Cardona S. ↓, Pedraza A. ↑,
63', Parejo D. ↓, Comesana S. ↑,
69', Luckassen D. 🟨,
72', Sema K. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
76', Veiga R. 🟨,
78', Orsic M. ↓, Jaja ↑,
78', Pepe ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
87', Quina D. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
90', Gueye P. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.

In recent matches, Paphos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villarreal is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Villarreal is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Correia J. (Red Card) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Paphos: Sunjic I. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
02.11.25	Paphos - AEL Limassol	1:0 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
30.10.25	Paphos - AEK Larnaca	1:2 penalties ✺
Cypriot First Division
27.10.25	Omonia - Paphos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Kairat - Paphos	0:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
17.10.25	Paphos - Ethnikos Achna	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLTW
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Villarreal	0:6 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.10.25	Valencia - Villarreal	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Villarreal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Villarreal - Betis	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLT

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