Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Alphamega Stadium (Limassol) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	18:45	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	14:45	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, Q League Asia, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	DAZN 2, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	18:45	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	14:45	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	19:45	Ring, Voyo
Canada	12:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	01:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	12:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	18:45	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	18:45	Canal+ Live 3, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	18:45	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Hungary	18:45	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport 2
India	23:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	19:45	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Arena
Kenya	20:45	Gotv
Kosovo	18:45	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 2
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Macao	01:45	TDM TV
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Maldives	22:45	Medianet
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	11:45	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Mongolia	01:45	Premier Sports 1
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	18:45	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	03:45	TVWan Sports
Peru	12:45	Disney+
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 3
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 2, DAZN / App
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	18:45	Voyo
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Football
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South Korea	02:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones
Suriname	14:45	ATV Suriname
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10, Canal+ Sport, Canal+ Sport, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	01:45	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	20:45	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:45	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, Virgin Media More
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	12:45	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, VTVcab


	Paphos		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	8.5	5.5	1.3
	9.9	5.75	1.31
	9.8	5.58	1.33
	5.93	4.56	1.51	Watch
	10.4	5.53	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.91 ↑ (5.93)	5.38 ↑ (4.56)	1.36 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paphos
10.9%

Draw
18%

Villarreal
71.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

16.1%

20.9%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

21%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paphos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paphos's form might have worsened.

Villarreal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villarreal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paphos than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paphos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villarreal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.7%	9.6%	87.7%

Paphos - Villarreal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Villarreal (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Paphos (2.03) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Villarreal will win (64 of 71 users predict this - 90.14%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.21% – 97.07%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Villarreal will win (21 of 25 users predict this - 84%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Paphos (votes: 1 - 3.6%). Villarreal (votes: 23 - 82.1%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Michail N. (G) 7. Bruno 23. Luckassen D. 4. David Luiz 12. Sema K. 26. Sunjic I. 5. Goldar D. (C) 88. Pepe 17. Orsic M. 30. Dragomir V. 8. Quina D.	1. Luiz Junior (G) 15. Mourino S. 8. Foyth J. 12. Veiga R. 23. Cardona S. 19. Pepe N. 10. Parejo D. (C) 18. Gueye P. 20. Moleiro A. 22. Perez A. 9. Mikautadze G.
Substitutes
33. Anderson Silva 9. Bassouamina M. 10. Dimata L. 1. Gorter J. (G) 11. Jaja 25. Langa B. 82. Petrou P. (G) 2. Pileas K.	11. Akhomach I. 3. Altimira A. 17. Buchanan T. 14. Comesana S. 4. Marin R. 7. Moreno G. 26. Navarro P. 21. Oluwaseyi T. 16. Partey T. 24. Pedraza A. 6. Solomon M. 25. Tenas A. (G)
Coaches
Carcedo J.	Marcelino G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Luckassen D. ⚽, Sema K. (A),
56', Mikautadze G. ↓, Oluwaseyi T. ↑,
56', Moleiro A. ↓, Solomon M. ↑,
63', Perez A. ↓, Moreno G. ↑,
63', Cardona S. ↓, Pedraza A. ↑,
63', Parejo D. ↓, Comesana S. ↑,
69', Luckassen D. 🟨,
72', Sema K. ↓, Pileas K. ↑,
76', Veiga R. 🟨,
78', Orsic M. ↓, Jaja ↑,
78', Pepe ↓, Anderson Silva ↑,
87', Quina D. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
90', Gueye P. 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Alphamega Stadium.

In recent matches, Paphos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villarreal is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Villarreal may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Villarreal is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Paphos: Brito A. (Inactive) Correia J. (Red Card) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Odefalk W. (Inactive) Papadoudis A. (Inactive) Pedrao (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Paphos: Sunjic I. (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paphos FC
Cypriot First Division
02.11.25	Paphos - AEL Limassol	1:0 ✺
Cypriot Super Cup
30.10.25	Paphos - AEK Larnaca	1:2 penalties ✺
Cypriot First Division
27.10.25	Omonia - Paphos	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Kairat - Paphos	0:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
17.10.25	Paphos - Ethnikos Achna	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLTW
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
01.11.25	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Ciudad de Lucena - Villarreal	0:6 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.10.25	Valencia - Villarreal	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Villarreal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Villarreal - Betis	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWWLT

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