Match Info

Brasiliense - Round 9

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Valmir Campelo Bezerra (Bezerrao) (Gama)


	Paranoá		Samambaia

	1	X	2
	6.7	3.9	1.42
	6.67	4.21	1.39
	6.89	3.8	1.46	Watch
	7	4	1.4
	9.41	3.45	1.49
	4.6	3.05	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.88 ↑ (4.95)	3.74 ↑ (3.21)	1.47 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paranoá
13.3%

Draw
24.5%

Samambaia
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

28.2%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.1%

27.8%

54.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paranoá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Samambaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Samambaia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paranoá than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samambaia than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Samambaia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Paranoá - Samambaia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
38', 0 - 1, ⚽,
40', 0 - 2, ⚽,
42', 0 - 3, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
56', 0 - 4, ⚽,
81', 0 - 5, ⚽,
85', 0 - 6, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasiliense (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Paranoá has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Samambaia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Samambaia is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paranoá won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Including home match between the teams, Paranoá won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paranoá EC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
21.02.26	Ceilândia - Paranoá	4:1 ✺
11.02.26	Paranoá - Brasiliense	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	Real Brasilia - Paranoá	4:5 ✺
31.01.26	Gama - Paranoá	4:1 ✺
24.01.26	Paranoá - Capital CF Ltda	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL
- Samambaia FC
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
22.02.26	Samambaia - Sobradinho	3:0 ✺
12.02.26	ARUC - Samambaia	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Samambaia - Brasília	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Samambaia - Brasiliense	0:1 ✺
24.01.26	Real Brasilia - Samambaia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
29.01.25	Paranoá - Samambaia	2:0
20.01.24	Samambaia - Paranoá	1:2
18.03.23	Samambaia - Paranoá	2:3
15.02.18	Samambaia - Paranoá	1:0

Paranoá - Samambaia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide