Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Partizana (Belgrade)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, RTS 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Partizan		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.20	6.25	Watch
	1.41	4.40	6.50
	1.30	5.30	8.50	Watch
	1.38	4.50	9.02
	1.29	5.47	9.33	Watch
	1.39	4.05	7.90
	1.44	4.26	8.21
	1.42	4.40	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.53)	4.57 ↑ (3.75)	7.79 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Partizan
67.5%

Draw
20.5%

Tobol Kostanay
12%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.5%

24.3%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.4%

23.2%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Partizan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Partizan's performance.

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Partizan than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Partizan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	12.5%	6.2%

Partizan - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: Partizan will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Krunic M. (G) 30. Roganovic M. 40. Simic N. (C) 23. Mitrovic S. 24. Djurdjevic V. 17. Aleksic M. 11. Vukotic M. 99. Kostic B. 19. Seck D. 9. Kojzek E. 39. Zubairu I.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 72. Senhadji R. 5. Ndiaye P. 25. Borsic A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 13. Cisse A. 10. Chesnokov I. 14. Talal A. 17. Zuev A. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
90. Alilovic Z. 46. Lekic M. 44. Milic S. 1. Milosevic M. (G) 5. Milovanovic M. 42. Ninic M. 20. Nwulu S. 33. Petrovic S. 7. Traore C. 32. Trifunovic N. 8. Zekovic A.	3. Asrankulov R. 34. Bakhytkiriev S. 38. Bakitzhanov A. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 4. Cavnic N. 30. Guerra L. 99. Lisakovich V. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 6. Myakish M. 19. Zhumat D.
Coaches
Ilic S.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Aleksic M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Seck D. ⚽,
44', Vukotic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', 2 - 0, Zubairu I. ⚽, Kojzek E. (A),
68', Milovanovic U. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
72', Zubairu I. ↓, Trifunovic N. ↑,
72', Aleksic M. ↓, Zekovic A. ↑,
78', Kojzek E. ↓, Lekic M. ↑,
78', Zuev A. ↓, Guerra L. ↑,
82', Tagybergen A. ↓, Myakish M. ↑,
84', Seck D. ↓, Traore C. ↑,
84', Roganovic M. ↓, Milic S. ↑,
86', Cisse A. 🟨,
90+1', Myakish M. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 0, Traore C. ⚽,
90+8', Djurdjevic V. 🟨,
90+9', Lekic M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Partizan is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tobol has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Partizan is the undisputed favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Partizan - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 59.48%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Partizan
Serbian Superliga
02.08.26	Partizan - IMT Novi Beograd	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	UNA Strassen - Partizan	0:1 ✺
Serbian Superliga
26.07.26	Mačva Šabac - Partizan	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Partizan - UNA Strassen	4:0 ✺
Serbian Superliga
18.07.26	Zemun - Partizan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWWT
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys	2:1 penalties ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Kyzylzhar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWTT

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