Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 3

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu) (Belem)


	Paysandu		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.88	3.55	Watch
	2.13	3.05	3.92
	1.19	5.79	15.60	Watch
	2.05	2.75	3.6
	2.09	2.76	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.14)	3.45 ↑ (2.75)	6.1 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paysandu
53.7%

Draw
29.6%

Barra Santa Catarina
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

33%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

32.5%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paysandu's performance.

Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barra Santa Catarina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Paysandu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barra Santa Catarina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Paysandu - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 31. Bonifazi F. 14. Bruno Bispo 8. Caio Mello 15. Castro 2. Edilson 9. Italo Carvalho 94. Kaua Hinkel 75. Kleiton Pego 10. Marcinho (C) 39. Pedro Henrique	1. Ewerton (G) 7. Cleo Silva 6. Da Rocha 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 3. Jean Pierre (C) 9. Lucas Vargas 11. Marcelinho 8. Pablo Gabriel 5. Tete 10. Warley Jr
Substitutes
23. Brian Macapa 5. Henrico 17. Henrique Salomoni 1. Jean Drosny (G) 98. Juninho 4. larley Brito 26. Libonati 99. Lucas Cardoso 77. Luciano Taboca 20. Matheus Capixaba 30. Thalyson 25. Tiago Indio	12. Fabian Volpi (G) 20. Gabriel Silva 15. Guilherme Lazaroni 16. Henrique Freitas 17. Matheus Barbosa 18. Nicolas 21. Renan Bernabe 19. Saymon 14. Vava Franca 23. Vinicius Popo 13. Vitao

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Marcinho 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Kleiton Pego ⚽,
32', Jean Pierre 🟨,
35', Marcelinho 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Warley Jr ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marcelinho ↓, Saymon ↑,
53', Kaua Hinkel ↓, Thalyson ↑,
59', Tete 🟨,
65', Pablo Gabriel 🟨,
67', Warley Jr ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
68', Pedro Henrique 🟨,
72', Bonifazi F. ↓, Juninho ↑,
72', Kleiton Pego ↓, Luciano Taboca ↑,
72', Italo Carvalho ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
83', Tete ↓, Vava Franca ↑,
83', Cleo Silva ↓, Henrique Freitas ↑,
84', Caio Mello ↓, Henrico ↑,
86', Henrico 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Paysandu is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Barra has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Barra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paysandu will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Barra FC: 2.7%

Last Results with these Odds

Paysandu - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.49%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Copa Norte
15.04.26	Paysandu - Independência	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
12.04.26	Paysandu - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
09.04.26	Nacional AM - Paysandu	7:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
05.04.26	Volta Redonda - Paysandu	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Norte
24.03.26	Paysandu - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTLWW
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Serie C
11.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Maranhão	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Botafogo PB - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.03.26	Volta Redonda - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 penalties ✺
12.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - América Mineiro	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.03.26	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWWL

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