Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Final

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)


	Chapecoense		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.51	3.75	5.25
	1.5	3.7	6.3
	1.46	3.6	8.3
	1.51	3.76	7.19	Watch
	1.44	3.7	6.5
	1.5	4.11	5.77
	1.48	3.75	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.5)	3.77 ↑ (3.73)	6.52 ↓ (6.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
61.6%

Draw
24.3%

Barra Santa Catarina
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

24.6%

14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.2%

23.8%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

The chances for Barra Santa Catarina have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Barra (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Barra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 27. Camilo Reijers 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 10. Giovanni Augusto 22. Higor Meritao 77. Italo 18. Neto Pessoa 99. Rafael Carvalheira 25. Victor Caetano	1. Ewerton (G) 6. Da Rocha 10. Elvinho 4. Everton Alemao 2. Fabio 7. Gabriel Silva 11. Geovany Soares 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jean Pierre 9. Renan Bernabe 5. Tete
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 20. Jean Carlos 4. Joao Paulo 5. Joao Vitor 7. Marcinho 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 15. Rafael Thyere 70. Rubens Ricoldi	24. Barba 17. Cleo Silva 12. Fabian Volpi (G) 23. Lucas Vargas 20. Marcelinho 21. Nicolas 15. Pablo 16. Pericles 19. Saymon 14. Vava 13. Vitao 18. Warley
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Eduardo Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Elvinho ↓, Cleo Silva ↑,
22', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+9', 🟨,
90+9', 🟨,
90+11', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-3. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Barra is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chapecoense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Chapecoense - Coritiba	3:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.02.26	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLTT
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Camboriú	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Camboriú - Barra Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Santa Catarina - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
01.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	3:1
05.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:1
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
19.10.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
31.01.24	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	2:2
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.09.23	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	4:1
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
23.03.23	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	1:2
18.03.23	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	2:0

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