Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 18

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Brazao M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Paços de Ferreira		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	3
	2.3	2.95	2.8
	2.45	3	3
	2.41	3.05	3.1	Watch
	2.3	3	2.9
	2.38	3.18	3.03
	2.45	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.33)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)	2.98 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
38.7%

Draw
30.2%

Mafra
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.5%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Mafra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Paços de Ferreira - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Mafra will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paços de Ferreira: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Marafona (G) 21. Anilson 23. Ferigra E. 3. Diegao 5. Antunes V. (C) 17. Paulo M. 11. Pavlic I. 8. Welton 7. Nogueira G. 19. Fonte R. 30. Costinha	1. Fraisl M. (G) 5. Beni D. 66. Capitao D. 29. Rossi R. 15. Guilherme (C) 3. Chriso 20. Maiga Y. 10. Fale M. 9. Nibe A. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.
Substitutes
27. Bazie J. 4. Cardoso G. 2. Icaro 12. Jeimes (G) 90. Lumungo R. 10. Morozov V. 22. Mota 18. Pedro R. 34. Teixeira T.	16. Djabi A. 45. Kamara A. 17. Kolawole J. 22. Lemos F. (G) 35. Monteiro V. 4. Passi B. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J. 32. Rodrigo Freitas
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Ferreira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Chriso 🟨,
38', Ferigra E. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Pavlic I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Fonte R. 🟨,
63', Welton 🟨,
63', Welton ↓, Lumungo R. ↑,
66', Iheanacho S. ↓, Monteiro V. ↑,
66', Chriso ↓, Djabi A. ↑,
66', Fale M. ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
76', Fonte R. ↓, Morozov V. ↑,
76', Costinha ↓, Mota ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Morozov V. ⚽, Lumungo R. (A),
84', Nibe A. ↓, Passi B. ↑,
84', Maiga Y. ↓, Kamara A. ↑,
88', Paulo M. ↓, Icaro ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Monteiro V. ⚽, Etim F. (A),
90+4', Pavlic I. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)).

Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Mafra is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mafra could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Portuguese Liga 2
12.01.25	Felgueiras - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
05.01.25	Paços de Ferreira - Académico de Viseu	4:3 ✺
22.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Alverca	1:3 ✺
14.12.24	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Paços de Ferreira - Portimonense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWLWL
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
05.01.25	Torreense - Mafra	1:0 ✺
29.12.24	Mafra - Feirense	0:0 ✺
20.12.24	Leixões - Mafra	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Mafra - Benfica B	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Mafra - Marítimo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
10.08.24	Mafra - Paços de Ferreira	0:1
28.01.24	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	0:1
19.08.23	Mafra - Paços de Ferreira	2:1
05.05.19	Paços de Ferreira - Mafra	2:0
06.01.19	Mafra - Paços de Ferreira	1:1

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