Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 20 December 2024, Friday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Leixões		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.5
	2.05	2.9	3.4
	2.15	3.1	3.6
	2.23	3.1	3.73
	2.17	3.03	3.65	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.5
	2.13	3.14	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.83)	3.03 ↓ (3.33)	3.57 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
43.5%

Draw
30.6%

Mafra
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

28.1%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

27.7%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leixões's form might have worsened.

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mafra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leixões, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mafra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	10.5%	15.8%

Leixões - Mafra Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Mafra will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leixões: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Stefanovic I. (C) 12. Jean Felipe 13. Evrard Zag 5. Rafael 15. Simaozinho 11. Andre 4. Chicao 27. Fabinho 99. Kibe 9. Rafael Martins 70. Martins R.	1. Fraisl M. (G) 2. Texel P. 32. Rodrigo Freitas 66. Capitao D. 5. Beni D. 3. Chriso (C) 17. Kolawole J. 10. Fale M. 9. Nibe A. 19. Iheanacho S. 90. Etim F.
Substitutes
18. Alhassan I. 24. Figueira Daniel (G) 23. Henrique Gelain 21. Mozino 20. Oliveira J. 10. Paulite 8. Rafa 16. Simoes A. 7. Werton	80. Goncalves V. 45. Kamara A. 22. Lemos F. (G) 7. Matos R. 35. Monteiro V. 4. Passi B. 6. Pereira P. 21. Precatado J. 39. Souza A.
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Ferreira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', Texel P. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,
16', 0 - 1, Etim F. ⚽, Nibe A. (A),
24', Iheanacho S. 🟨,
35', Beni D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Fabinho 🟨,
55', Martins R. ↓, Werton ↑,
55', Andre ↓, Paulite ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Jean Felipe ⚽,
76', Rafael Martins ↓, Mozino ↑,
81', Evrard Zag ↓, Simoes A. ↑,
81', Fabinho ↓, Rafa ↑,
81', Iheanacho S. ↓, Precatado J. ↑,
82', Fale M. ↓, Matos R. ↑,
87', Nibe A. ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
90+1', Pereira P. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Werton ⚽,
90+6', Werton 🟨,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leixões won 2.

Leixões is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Mafra is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leixões will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Leixões won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12:12 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Leixões won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:8 (average 0.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.24	Penafiel - Leixões	3:1 ✺
07.12.24	Leixões - Felgueiras	2:2 ✺
29.11.24	Académico de Viseu - Leixões	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.24	Leixões - Braga	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
10.11.24	Leixões - Marítimo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLLW
- CD Mafra
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.24	Mafra - Benfica B	2:0 ✺
08.12.24	Mafra - Marítimo	2:3 ✺
01.12.24	Penafiel - Mafra	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Mafra - Académico de Viseu	0:2 ✺
03.11.24	Felgueiras - Mafra	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
17.03.24	Leixões - Mafra	1:1
04.11.23	Mafra - Leixões	0:1
30.04.23	Leixões - Mafra	0:2
14.11.22	Mafra - Leixões	1:1
07.05.22	Mafra - Leixões	0:2
02.02.22	Leixões - Mafra	2:0
14.02.21	Mafra - Leixões	1:1

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