Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 3 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Peña Deportiva		Orihuela

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.10	2.37
	2.55	3.1	2.42
	2.63	3.27	2.47
	2.65	3.31	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.4
	2.67	3.16	2.34
	2.6	3.2	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.46)	3.19 ↓ (3.27)	2.42 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peña Deportiva
34.5%

Draw
28.2%

Orihuela
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.3%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

26.1%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peña Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Orihuela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peña Deportiva than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orihuela than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Peña Deportiva - Orihuela Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, Montori A. ⚽,
33', Ley Y. 🟨,
45+4', 1 - 1, Solsona J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 2 - 1, Gassama S. ⚽,
87', 3 - 1, Sancho D. ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 18th in the Relegation and 11th).

Peña Deportiva has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Orihuela is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Peña Deportiva may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Orihuela has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Peña Deportiva has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2 (averaging 0.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Peña Deportiva against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Orihuela	6	2	1	3	7:14	-7	7
16	Pena Deportiva	6	1	1	4	6:9	-3	4

Last Results with these Odds

Orihuela - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.34%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peña Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
04.10.26	Valencia B - Peña Deportiva	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Peña Deportiva - Real Murcia B	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Elche Ilicitano - Peña Deportiva	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Peña Deportiva - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Minera - Peña Deportiva	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLTL
- Orihuela CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
04.10.26	Orihuela - Cieza	0:4 ✺
26.09.26	Orihuela - Castellon B	1:4 ✺
20.09.26	Minera - Orihuela	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
16.09.26	Orihuela - Real Murcia	1:4 AET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
13.09.26	Orihuela - Lorca Deportiva	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
21.02.21	Peña Deportiva - Orihuela	1:1
29.11.20	Orihuela - Peña Deportiva	1:0

Peña Deportiva - Orihuela: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide