Match Info

Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
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South-america	ESPN South
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+, Flow, VTV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Peñarol de Montevideo		Colo-Colo

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.45	3.55
	2.18	3.46	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3	3.3
	2.06	3.59	3.29	Watch
	2	3.5	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.36)	3.4 (3.4)	3.35 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
45.2%

Draw
27.2%

Colo-Colo
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

27.5%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

27.2%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.

Colo-Colo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Colo-Colo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colo-Colo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Colo-Colo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Peñarol de Montevideo - Colo Colo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Peñarol (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Peñarol (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Peñarol (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Aguerre W. (G) 2. Escobar F. 17. Gularte E. 22. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. 5. Remedi E. 21. Jesus Trindade 10. Fernandez L. 32. Umpierrez L. 23. Togni G. 19. Arezo M.	30. De Paul F. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 20. Mendez J. 4. Sosa J. 17. Riquelme C. 23. Vidal A. 6. Alarcon T. 5. Mendez V. 7. Marchant F. 24. Hernandez L. 19. Romero M.
Substitutes
28. Alegre I. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 20. Daguer J. 80. Gonzalez F. 25. Gonzalez M. 26. Madruga A. 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 4. Rodriguez K.	10. Aquino C. 9. Correa J. . Cuevas Y. 25. Maureira G. (G) 36. Moya M. 8. Pavez E. 28. Rojas J. 33. Suarez N. 26. Ulloa D. 2. Villagra J. 27. Zavala C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Olivera M. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
42', 0 - 1, Mendez V. ⚽,
45+2', Ferreira L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Escobar F. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
46', Umpierrez L. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
46', Fernandez M. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
46', Mendez J. ↓, Villagra J. ↑,
46', Vidal A. ↓, Aquino C. ↑,
57', Togni G. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
69', Romero M. ↓, Cuevas Y. ↑,
69', Hernandez L. ↓, Zavala C. ↑,
75', Gularte E. ↓, Madruga A. ↑,
81', Riquelme C. ↓, Ulloa D. ↑,
81', De Paul F. ↓, Maureira G. ↑,
89', Zavala C. 🟨,
90+2', Arezo M. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Batista F. ⚽,
90+4', Arezo M. 🟥,
90+4', Villagra J. 🟥,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
6, (Penalty Awarded),
7, (Penalty Awarded),
7, (Penalty Awarded),
8, (Penalty Awarded),
8, (Penalty Awarded),
9, (Penalty Awarded),
9, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Peñarol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñarol won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
19.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
17.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate	0:1 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
12.01.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Central Español	1:0 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.11.25	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ET ✺
23.11.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLT
- Colo-Colo
Serie Rio de la Plata
18.01.26	Colo-Colo - Alianza Lima	2:3 ✺
15.01.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Colo-Colo	0:1 penalties ✺
Chilean Primera Division
07.12.25	Colo-Colo - Audax Italiano	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Cobresal - Colo-Colo	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Colo-Colo - Unión La Calera	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Serie Rio de la Plata
12.01.25	Peñarol de Montevideo - Colo-Colo	1:1
Copa Libertadores
29.09.20	Peñarol de Montevideo - Colo-Colo	3:0
15.09.20	Colo-Colo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:1

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