Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 6

Date: 2 October 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Guelho S. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV5, Sport TV+


	Penafiel		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	2.8
	2.2	3.1	2.87
	2.35	3.3	2.95	Watch
	2.45	3.31	3.1
	2.2	3.2	2.9
	2.31	3.28	2.93	Watch
	2.23	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.15)	3.23 ↑ (3)	2.92 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
40.1%

Draw
28.4%

Nacional
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

30%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

30.9%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Penafiel - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: Penafiel will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva P. (G) 68. Maga 4. Miguel J. (C) 44. Pereira R. 15. Silva J. 8. Reko 21. Batista D. 7. Firmino H. 75. Ribeiro R. 30. Silva A. 17. Gabriel Barbosa (Robinho)	37. Lucas Franca (G) 2. Aurelio J. (C) 40. Ulisses 4. Paulo Vitor 55. Sousa A. 8. Danilovic V. 10. Esteves L. 11. Witi 7. Macedo R. 28. Carlos Daniel 9. Ramirez J.
Substitutes
26. Brito D. 73. Filipe Ferreira (G) 27. Freitas R. 5. Pereira B. 13. Pinheiro Edu 10. Silva J. 9. Suker H. 6. Teixeira L. 99. Vieira P.	99. Dudu 77. Gustavo 5. Jose Gomes 20. Jota Garces 21. Marakis S. 3. Pola J. 27. Raimar 18. Sousa A. 12. Vinicius Machado (G)
Coaches
Cristovao H.	Margarido T.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2.

Recent matches Penafiel is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nacional is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Penafiel have a series of guest games.

Penafiel will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Valadares Gaia - Penafiel	1:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.23	Santa Clara - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
02.09.23	Penafiel - Académico de Viseu	0:0 ✺
27.08.23	Oliveirense - Penafiel	3:1 ✺
20.08.23	Feirense - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTTLL
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese League Cup
28.09.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.09.23	Portosantense - Nacional	2:4 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.09.23	Nacional - Feirense	1:0 ✺
03.09.23	Vilaverdense - Nacional	1:2 ✺
28.08.23	Nacional - Leixões	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
22.07.23	Nacional - Penafiel	1:0 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
16.04.23	Penafiel - Nacional	3:0
29.10.22	Nacional - Penafiel	1:1
13.02.22	Nacional - Penafiel	3:0
12.09.21	Penafiel - Nacional	1:0
29.02.20	Penafiel - Nacional	1:1
21.09.19	Nacional - Penafiel	2:1

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