Match Info

Date: 4 September 2022, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril (Penafiel)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Penafiel		Trofense

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.5	4.33
	1.72	3.3	4.33
	1.67	3.45	4.75
	1.73	3.45	4.5
	1.75	3.72	5.16
	1.7	3.1	5
	1.72	3.36	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (2.05)	3.41 ↑ (3)	4.7 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
53.5%

Draw
26.9%

Trofense
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.1%

30.1%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

28.4%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penafiel's performance.

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Trofense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penafiel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Penafiel - Trofense Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Penafiel will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Trofense will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2.

Recent matches Penafiel is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Trofense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Penafiel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Penafiel is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
27.08.22	Covilhã - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
22.08.22	Penafiel - BSAD	3:3 ✺
15.08.22	Mafra - Penafiel	3:0 ✺
08.08.22	Penafiel - Leixões	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Penafiel - Vizela	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTLTW
- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
28.08.22	Oliveirense - Trofense	1:1 ✺
20.08.22	Trofense - Vilafranquense	1:3 ✺
15.08.22	Leixões - Trofense	1:0 ✺
06.08.22	Trofense - BSAD	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Trofense - Boavista	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
07.02.22	Penafiel - Trofense	1:0
30.08.21	Trofense - Penafiel	2:1
Taça de Portugal
30.09.18	Trofense - Penafiel	2:3
Portuguese Liga 2
29.01.14	Penafiel - Trofense	1:1
14.09.13	Trofense - Penafiel	0:0
02.09.12	Penafiel - Trofense	1:1

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