Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 24

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Grupo Desportivo Peniche (Peniche)


	Peniche		SB Castelo Branco

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.05	2.42
	2.82	2.85	2.47
	2.59	3.50	2.41	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.45
	2.77	2.89	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.47)	3.02 ↓ (3.25)	2.44 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peniche
33.1%

Draw
29.9%

SB Castelo Branco
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

27.9%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

28.4%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peniche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Peniche - SB Castelo Branco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+2', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

SB Castelo Branco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Peniche won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Peniche won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Peniche - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 36.8%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
29.03.26	Samora Correia - Peniche	5:2 ✺
22.03.26	Eléctrico - Peniche	4:2 ✺
15.03.26	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Os Marialvas - Peniche	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Peniche - Naval	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLLWW
- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
25.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Marinhense - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
07.12.25	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	5:0
16.03.25	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	1:1
30.11.24	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	0:1
07.04.24	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	2:0
17.12.23	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	2:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.01.22	Peniche - SB Castelo Branco	0:1
24.10.21	SB Castelo Branco - Peniche	1:1

Peniche - SB Castelo Branco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide