Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 17

Date: 29 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Da Murteira (Samora Correia)


	Samora Correia		Peniche

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.05	2.15
	3.35	3.11	2.06
	3.3	3.1	2.14	Watch
	3.3	2.8	2.1
	3.21	3.36	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.82)	3.08 ↓ (3.2)	2.11 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samora Correia
27.8%

Draw
29.4%

Peniche
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.4%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.5%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samora Correia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Peniche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samora Correia than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Samora Correia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peniche than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Samora Correia - Peniche Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, ⚽,
40', 2 - 1, ⚽,
44', 3 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 4 - 1, ⚽,
65', 5 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 5 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Samora Correia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peniche has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Samora Correia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Samora Correia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GD Samora Correia
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
21.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Samora Correia	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Samora Correia - Os Marialvas	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Naval - Samora Correia	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Samora Correia - Mortágua	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Fatima - Samora Correia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLLWT
- GD Peniche
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
22.03.26	Eléctrico - Peniche	4:2 ✺
15.03.26	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Os Marialvas - Peniche	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Peniche - Naval	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	Mortágua - Peniche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	Peniche - Samora Correia	1:0

Samora Correia - Peniche: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide