Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 May 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Penya Independent		Porreres

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.65	3.4
	2.6	2.65	2.95
	2.6	2.63	3.54
	2.64	2.48	3.26	Watch
	2.41	2.94	3.06
	2.6	2.65	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.93)	2.67 ↓ (3.3)	3.19 ↓ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penya Independent
36.7%

Draw
34.5%

Porreres
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

30.9%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penya Independent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penya Independent's form might have worsened.

Porreres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penya Independent, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porreres than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porreres, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Penya Independent - Porreres Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

1st leg.

Penya Independent has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Porreres is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Penya Independent is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SE Penya Independent
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
24.05.25	Constancia - Penya Independent	0:1 ✺
17.05.25	Penya Independent - Constancia	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Santanyí - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
07.05.25	Penya Independent - Campos	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Penya Independent - Formentera	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WTLWL
- UE Porreres
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
25.05.25	Formentera - Porreres	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Porreres - Formentera	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Migjorn - Porreres	1:3 ✺
04.05.25	Porreres - PE Sant Jordi	3:1 ✺
19.04.25	Porreres - Santanyí	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UE Porreres
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
28.10.26	Porreres - Alcúdia	✺

Penya Independent - Porreres