Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 2

Date: 30 September 2024, Monday

Location: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

Referee: Jamali A. (Kuw)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Montenegro	SportKlub
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Tving
Sweden	TV4 Play
Tajikistan	Futbol TV
Turkey	D Smart GO, Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball app, Sport 2 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Persepolis		Pakhtakor

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.46	4.1	7.25
	1.44	4	8
	1.48	4.27	6.7
	1.45	4.22	7.17	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7	Watch
	1.47	4.25	7.3	Watch
	1.44	4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (2.06)	4.15 ↑ (3.3)	7.35 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Persepolis
64.7%

Draw
22.6%

Pakhtakor
12.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28.9%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

29.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Persepolis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Persepolis's performance.

Pakhtakor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pakhtakor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Persepolis than the current prediction. (-19.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Persepolis that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pakhtakor than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pakhtakor could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Persepolis - Pakhtakor Predictions

Users Predictions: Persepolis will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guendouz A. (G) 20. El Amloud A. 30. Gvelesiani G. 6. Kanaani H. 4. Mohammadi M. 7. Rafiei S. 5. Rigi M. 19. Amiri V. (C) 11. Ahmadzadeh F. 77. Khodabandelou M. 9. Alipour A.	12. Nazarov V. (G) 7. Alizhonov K. 3. Azmiddinov S. 4. Abdullaev A. 5. Khamraliev M. 23. Buriev A. 17. Khamdamov D. 10. Ceran D. (C) 27. Sobirkhuzhaev S. 22. Adkhamzoda U. 30. Jurakuziev O.
Substitutes
10. Alkasir I. 44. Asadi M. (G) 3. Faraji F. 15. Hoboobati S. 31. Joao L. 27. Mehri S. 22. Rafiei A. (G) 21. Sadeghi S. 76. Sahraei S. 80. Salmani Y. 23. Sarlak M. 70. Urunov O.	55. Abdumazhidov M. 2. Askarov B. 99. Hoshimov U. 11. Kholdorkhonov P. 8. Kholmatov D. 40. Merk K. 15. Ortikboev D. 35. Pavlyuchenko P. (G) 1. Shevchenko N. (G) 31. Usmonov M.
Coaches
Garrido J.	Shatskikh M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Alipour A. ⚽, Amiri V. (A),
3', Jurakuziev O. 🟨,
23', Khodabandelou M. 🟨,
45+1', Khamdamov D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Khodabandelou M. ↓, Sadeghi S. ↑,
58', Alipour A. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
58', Ahmadzadeh F. ↓, Mehri S. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Ceran D. ⚽, Sobirkhuzhaev S. (A),
69', Amiri V. ↓, Alkasir I. ↑,
69', Rafiei S. ↓, Urunov O. ↑,
73', Khamdamov D. ↓, Kholdorkhonov P. ↑,
73', Jurakuziev O. ↓, Hoshimov U. ↑,
84', Ceran D. ↓, Merk K. ↑,
90+5', Hoshimov U. 🟨,

Preview

Persepolis is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Pakhtakor is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Pakhtakor have a series of home games.

In this match Persepolis is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Persepolis won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Persepolis won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Persepolis FC
Iran Pro League
25.09.24	Esteghlal - Persepolis	0:1 ✺
20.09.24	Persepolis - Aluminium Arak	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.24	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Persepolis	1:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
30.08.24	Persepolis - Foolad Khuzestan	2:0 ✺
22.08.24	Tractor Sazi - Persepolis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWT
- Pakhtakor Tashkent
Uzbek League
25.09.24	Pakhtakor - Olympic Tashkent	6:0 ✺
21.09.24	Metallurg Bekabad - Pakhtakor	3:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.09.24	Pakhtakor - Al Wasl	0:1 ✺
Uzbek League
13.09.24	Pakhtakor - Neftchi Fargona	0:0 ✺
Uzbek Cup
30.08.24	Pakhtakor - Navbahor Namangan	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
30.09.20	Persepolis - Pakhtakor	2:0
06.05.19	Pakhtakor - Persepolis	1:0
05.03.19	Persepolis - Pakhtakor	1:1

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