Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Weston Homes Stadium (Peterborough)

Referee: Young A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Peterborough United		Aston Villa U21

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.5	7
				Watch
	1.24	5.4	9.3
	1.27	5.6	8.73
	1.34	5.64	6.88	Watch
	1.28	5.4	9.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.68)	5.51 ↑ (4.02)	8.21 ↑ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peterborough United
72.1%

Draw
16.7%

Aston Villa U21
11.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

23.2%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

25.2%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peterborough United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peterborough United's performance.

Aston Villa U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aston Villa U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peterborough United than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peterborough United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa U21 than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Peterborough United - Aston Villa U21 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Peterborough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Aston Villa U21 (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Peterborough United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Peterborough (votes: 1 - 50%). Aston Villa U21 (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Reyes V. (G) 2. Johnston C. (C) 26. Okagbue D. 15. Nevett G. 33. Dornelly J. 23. Mills H. 8. Khela B. 16. Woods B. 7. Lolos K. 22. O'Brien-Brady D. 19. Lindgren G.	60. Hollingshead R. (G) 72. McWilliams A. 71. Carroll T. 56. Routh L. 80. Fortes R. 79. Kone M. 54. Borland A. (C) 68. Mulley T. 69. Brannigan C. 93. Lynskey A. 57. Wilson R.
Substitutes
35. Andrews J. 17. Lisbie K. 32. Mendonca L. 24. Morgan J. 10. Odoh A. 36. Shofowoke B. 31. Smith B. (G)	63. Asemota O. (G) 98. Bloomfield T. 66. Boyd F. 90. Burgess W. 67. Cotcher M. 94. Jenner M. 73. Moreland C.
Coaches
Ferguson D.	Shan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Borland A. 🟨,
19', Mills H. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Kone M. ⚽, Brannigan C. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Lolos K. ↓, Morgan J. ↑,
46', Lindgren G. ↓, Odoh A. ↑,
46', Khela B. ↓, Lisbie K. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Lynskey A. ⚽,
52', 1 - 2, Lisbie K. ⚽, O'Brien-Brady D. (A),
67', 2 - 2, Lisbie K. ⚽, Dornelly J. (A),
71', Woods B. ↓, Andrews J. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Morgan J. ⚽, Dornelly J. (A),
73', Lynskey A. ↓, Jenner M. ↑,
73', Wilson R. ↓, Cotcher M. ↑,
74', 4 - 2, Lisbie K. ⚽, Dornelly J. (A),
76', Nevett G. ↓, Mendonca L. ↑,
78', Mulley T. ↓, Burgess W. ↑,
87', Johnston C. 🟨,
90+1', Fortes R. ↓, Bloomfield T. ↑,
90+5', Brannigan C. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Aston Villa U21 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa U21 has had a series of away games.

In this match, Peterborough is the obvious favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Peterborough United - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.44%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peterborough United
English League One
27.09.25	Peterborough United - Lincoln City	0:3 ✺
20.09.25	Plymouth Argyle - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Peterborough United - Wycombe Wanderers	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Peterborough United - Leyton Orient	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWLL
- Aston Villa U21
English Premier League 2
26.09.25	Nottingham Forest U21 - Aston Villa U21	2:3 ✺
19.09.25	Everton U21 - Aston Villa U21	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Crawley Town - Aston Villa U21	4:2 ✺
English Premier League 2
29.08.25	Aston Villa U21 - Chelsea U21	1:2 ✺
25.08.25	West Bromwich Albion U21 - Aston Villa U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWLLW

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