Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Balmoor (Peterhead)


	Peterhead		Elgin City

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.3
	2.05	3.40	2.95
	2.02	3.4	3.25
	2.06	3.53	3.37
	2.11	3.55	3.18	Watch
	1.94	3.45	3.3
	2.06	3.3	3.41
	1.98	3.35	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.6)	3.4 ↓ (3.8)	3.24 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peterhead
45%

Draw
26.8%

Elgin City
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

23.7%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

22.7%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peterhead has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Peterhead's form might have worsened.

Elgin City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elgin City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peterhead than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Peterhead, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elgin City than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elgin City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Peterhead - Elgin City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Dingwall R. ⚽, Hester K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+1', Girvan K. 🟨,

Preview

Peterhead is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peterhead won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Bookmakers give the edge to Peterhead for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Peterhead has recorded 12 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 41:20 (averaging 2.1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Peterhead against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 28:9 goals (averaging 2.5:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Elgin City ✔	5	4	0	1	14:2	12	12
6	Peterhead ✔	5	4	0	1	11:4	7	12

Last Results with these Odds

Peterhead - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 56.24%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peterhead
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Forfar Athletic - Peterhead	0:2 ✺
Scottish League One
19.09.26	Peterhead - Airdrieonians	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	East Kilbride - Peterhead	3:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Peterhead - Clachnacuddin	2:1 ✺
Scottish League One
05.09.26	Peterhead - Montrose	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLLWL
- Elgin City
Scottish Challenge Cup
22.09.26	Elgin City - Dundee 2	3:0 ✺
Scottish League Two
19.09.26	Elgin City - Stranraer	1:5 ✺
12.09.26	Annan Athletic - Elgin City	2:0 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Elgin City - Fraserburgh	7:0 ✺
Scottish League Two
05.09.26	Dumbarton - Elgin City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
14.07.26	Elgin City - Peterhead	1:3
Scottish Challenge Cup
23.09.25	Peterhead - Elgin City	1:1
Scottish League Two
19.04.25	Elgin City - Peterhead	4:0
01.03.25	Peterhead - Elgin City	2:0
28.12.24	Elgin City - Peterhead	2:0
05.10.24	Peterhead - Elgin City	0:1
Scottish League Cup
20.07.24	Peterhead - Elgin City	4:2

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