Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Donato Curcio (Picerno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Picerno		Casarano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.2	3.4
	2.25	3.2	2.98
	1.96	3.35	3.78
	19.91	10.42	1.08	Watch
	2.29	3.04	3.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.67 ↑ (2.32)	4.64 ↑ (2.85)	2.85 ↓ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Picerno
23.8%

Draw
29%

Casarano
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

32.7%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

32.7%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Picerno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Picerno's form might have worsened.

Casarano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Casarano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Picerno than the current prediction. (+16.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Picerno, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casarano than the current prediction. (-20%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Casarano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Picerno - Casarano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Summa E. (G) 21. Salvo G. 4. Frison F. 5. Veltri A. 63. Pistolesi F. 34. Maselli S. 6. Marino A. 7. Energe A. 99. Pugliese S. 11. Esposito E. (C) 90. Abreu L.	22. Chiorra N. (G) 5. Celiento D. 4. Lulic K. 29. Gyamfi B. 80. Di Dio F. 17. Maiello R. (C) 23. Logoluso G. 20. Pinto G. 10. Chirico C. 9. Malcore G. 21. Millico V.
Substitutes
30. Bianchi S. 33. Bocic M. 77. Cardoni K. 22. Cortese S. (G) 25. Djibril M. 16. Esposito A. (G) 23. Granata A. 2. Perri M. 70. Petito F. 19. Santaniello E. 9. Santarcangelo A. 14. Vimercati A.	14. Andrea M. 1. Bacchin F. (G) 26. Barone A. 35. Cerbone S. 8. D'Alena A. 24. Gega E. 30. Malagnino D. 15. Milicevic M. 7. Palumbo F. 18. Perez L. 12. Pucci D. (G) 90. Zanaboni E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Chirico C. ⚽,
27', 0 - 2, Chirico C. ⚽,
39', Maselli S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pugliese S. ↓, Petito F. ↑,
46', Energe A. ↓, Bocic M. ↑,
62', Malcore G. ↓, Zanaboni E. ↑,
62', Millico V. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
65', Esposito E. ↓, Santarcangelo A. ↑,
66', Marino A. ↓, Bianchi S. ↑,
69', Di Dio F. 🟨,
74', Bocic M. 🟨,
79', Chirico C. ↓, D'Alena A. ↑,
84', Pistolesi F. 🟨,
85', Abreu L. ↓, Santaniello E. ↑,
86', Di Dio F. ↓, Gega E. ↑,
86', Pinto G. ↓, Cerbone S. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Santarcangelo A. ⚽,
90+7', Maiello R. 🟨,

Preview

Picerno has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Casarano is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Casarano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Picerno might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Picerno won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Picerno won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Picerno ASD
Italian Serie C Group C
07.09.25	Latina - Picerno	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Picerno - Giugliano	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Audace Cerignola - Picerno	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Picerno - Trapani	1:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Bari - Picerno	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTTLL
- Casarano Calcio
Italian Serie C Group C
06.09.25	Casarano - Benevento	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Atalanta U23 - Casarano	6:2 ✺
24.08.25	Casarano - Trapani	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Casarano - Altamura	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.08.25	Bari - Casarano	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.1 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group A
16.06.21	Picerno - Casarano	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group H
16.05.21	Picerno - Casarano	2:2
24.01.21	Casarano - Picerno	0:1
Club Friendly
13.08.19	Picerno - Casarano	1:2

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