Match Info

Division 1 - Round 12

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Krumplewski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Poland	15:30	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Stal Mielec		Chrobry Głogów

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.20	2.80
	2.30	3.40	2.70
	2.23	3.30	2.75
	2.41	3.54	2.91
	2.32	3.51	2.88	Watch
	2.35	3.40	2.85
	2.34	3.34	2.92
	2.33	3.35	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.21)	3.38 ↓ (3.53)	2.82 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
39.9%

Draw
27.3%

Chrobry Głogów
32.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.2%

26.4%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

24.4%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Chrobry Głogów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chrobry Głogów than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Chrobry will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Gostomski M. (G) 29. Tupaj P. 38. Wyparlo M. 44. Puerto I. 5. Matynia H. 32. Gerbowski F. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 14. Koscielny K. 7. Cebula M. 78. Cybulski K. 19. Gmur T.	22. Bakowski K. (G) 10. Sharabura Y. 51. Rybak A. 7. Ibe-Torti K. 80. Tabis K. 33. Bukowski A. 28. Lis J. 21. Kozajda M. 6. Czajka B. 8. Gric J. (C) 11. Strozik S.
Substitutes
41. Chrapusta P. (G) 10. Domanski M. 23. Getinger K. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 2. Kukulowicz B. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 47. Oure S. 88. Prajsnar P. 20. Ziobron E.	5. Bak R. 77. Bartolewski M. 24. Grzelak K. 47. Klimek A. 9. Ozimek M. 17. Sadiku A. 15. Staszak W. 1. Wroblewski K. (G) 44. Zabrowarny F.
Coaches
Skiba D.	Becella L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Puerto I. 🟨,
56', Strozik S. 🟨,
60', Kozajda M. 🟨,
64', Ibe-Torti K. ↓, Sadiku A. ↑,
64', Bukowski A. ↓, Bak R. ↑,
66', Sadiku A. 🟨,
68', Gmur T. ↓, Ziobron E. ↑,
68', Wyparlo M. ↓, Kruszelnicki P. ↑,
74', Rybak A. ↓, Staszak W. ↑,
79', Cebula M. ↓, Oure S. ↑,
79', Cybulski K. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
82', Tupaj P. 🟨,
84', Matynia H. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
85', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
90+1', Sharabura Y. ↓, Bartolewski M. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 14th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 2.

Stal Mielec is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Chrobry has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Stal Mielec has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:13 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Stal Mielec against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 11:7 goals (averaging 2.2:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13:15	-2	13
15	Stal Mielec	12	3	4	5	16:27	-11	13

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.4% Chrobry Glogow: 0.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.24%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
17.10.26	Miedź Legnica - Stal Mielec	3:0 ✺
11.10.26	Stal Mielec - Warta Poznań	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	7:1 ✺
14.09.26	Stal Mielec - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Stal Mielec - Odra Opole	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLT
- Chrobry Głogów
Polish Division 1
17.10.26	Polonia Bytom - Chrobry Głogów	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Chrobry Głogów - Warta Poznań	1:3 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.26	Polonia Warsaw - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Siedlce	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
17.04.26	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	2:1
03.10.25	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:2
14.07.20	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:0
27.10.19	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	1:0
28.04.19	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	5:1
13.10.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	0:0
13.05.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	3:5

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