Match Info

Division 1 - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Krumplewski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Stal Mielec		Chrobry Głogów

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.37	3.3	2.65
	2.45	3.4	2.62	Watch
	2.47	3.49	2.79
	2.30	3.37	2.96	Watch
	2.42	3.56	2.67	Watch
	2.33	3.35	2.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2)	3.42 ↓ (3.59)	2.7 ↓ (3.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
38.7%

Draw
27%

Chrobry Głogów
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

25.8%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

25.7%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stal Mielec's form might have worsened.

Chrobry Głogów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chrobry Głogów's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stal Mielec, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chrobry Głogów than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chrobry Głogów, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	38.5%	7.7%

Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Chrobry will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Mielec: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matys M. (G) 33. Bukowski A. 27. Diez A. 10. Domanski M. (C) 32. Gerbowski F. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 9. Losada M. 11. Odolak K. 15. Senger M. 20. Szeliga B. 18. Wlazlo P.	99. Arndt D. (G) 30. Bartlewicz S. 8. Gric J. 10. Janczukowicz P. 21. Kozajda M. 27. Laskowski K. 23. Lewkot S. 16. Mandrysz R. (C) 18. Mazur M. 9. Ozimek M. 80. Tabis K.
Substitutes
13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 17. Mazurek D. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 6. Pisek J. 77. Sadlocha K. 23. Sommerfeld K. 16. Szady N. 19. Yanchuk M.	17. Antkowiak G. 24. Grzelak K. 13. Kuzdra J. 95. Lenarcik P. (G) 3. Malczuk N. 15. Nowakowski K. 11. Strozik S. 96. Szarek P. 31. Tworzydlo K.
Coaches
Mamrot I.	Becella L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Kozajda M. 🟨,
32', Ozimek M. 🟨,
35', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Gric J. 🟨,
57', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
60', Odolak K. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,
66', Bartlewicz S. 🟨,
68', Mandrysz R. 🟨,
68', Kruszelnicki P. 🟨,
68', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
71', Bartlewicz S. ↓, Nowakowski K. ↑,
71', Janczukowicz P. ↓, Strozik S. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Diez A. ⚽, Kruszelnicki P. (A),
80', 1 - 1, Mazur M. ⚽, Mandrysz R. (A),
81', Bukowski A. ↓, Pisek J. ↑,
81', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Mazurek D. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Mandrysz R. ⚽,
87', Strozik S. 🟨,
90+1', Ozimek M. ↓, Kuzdra J. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 3.

Stal Mielec is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Chrobry has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stal Mielec is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:5. (average 2.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
27.09.25	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
Polish Cup
23.09.25	Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT
- Chrobry Głogów
Polish Division 1
28.09.25	Chrobry Głogów - Górnik Łęczna	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	ŁKS Łódź - Chrobry Głogów	5:3 ET ✺
Polish Division 1
22.09.25	Ruch Chorzów - Chrobry Głogów	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Siedlce	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Chrobry Głogów	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
14.07.20	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:0
27.10.19	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	1:0
28.04.19	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	5:1
13.10.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	0:0
13.05.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	3:5
21.10.17	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	3:0
31.03.17	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	0:1

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