Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 17 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Pogoń Szczecin		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.2	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.3
	2	3.65	3.3	Watch
	2.08	3.79	3.48
	2.49	2.93	3.11	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.25
	2.02	3.7	3.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.98)	3.52 ↓ (3.71)	3.29 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
44.8%

Draw
26.7%

Górnik Zabrze
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

25.2%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

25.5%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	16.7%	8.3%

Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Pogoń Szczecin will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 22. Loncar D. 2. Huja M. 4. Leo Borges 8. Ulvestad F. 7. Juwara M. 10. Przyborek A. 14. Pozo J. 11. Grosicki K. (C) 9. Koulouris E.	1. Lubik M. (C) 5. Szczesniak K. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. 18. Ambros L. 8. Hellebrand P. 14. Kubicki J. 11. Ismaheel T. 23. Liseth S. 15. Massimo R.
Substitutes
6. Bieganski J. 38. Jakubowski R. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 13. Keramitsis D. 99. Kostorz K. 32. Koutris L. 47. Lawa N. 17. Lis J. 18. Mukairu P. 19. Ndiaye M. 61. Smolinski K.	22. Abdullahi A. 28. Donio B. 19. Dziegielewski N. 79. Goh Young-Jun 81. Kmet M. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 16. Olkowski P. 55. Pingot M. 30. Sow O. 27. Szala D. 74. Tsirigotis T.
Coaches
Kolendowicz R.	Gasparik M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Juwara M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Massimo R. ↓, Sow O. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Liseth S. ⚽, Ambros L. (A),
63', Wahlqvist L. 🟨,
64', Koulouris E. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,
64', Przyborek A. ↓, Mukairu P. ↑,
66', 0 - 2, Janza E. ⚽, Hellebrand P. (A),
69', 0 - 3, Sow O. ⚽,
72', Grosicki K. ↓, Koutris L. ↑,
72', Ulvestad F. ↓, Smolinski K. ↑,
79', Huja M. ↓, Bieganski J. ↑,
87', Hellebrand P. ↓, Donio B. ↑,
87', Ismaheel T. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
88', Liseth S. ↓, Tsirigotis T. ↑,
90+1', Szczesniak K. ↓, Szala D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Pogoń Szczecin might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Renyer (Inactive)

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Zahovic L. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Janicki R. (Injury) Sacek M. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Szczecin won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
21.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Błękitni Stargard Szczeciński	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Radomiak Radom - Pogoń Szczecin	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWWL
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Piast Gliwice - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Karviná - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
07.02.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze	3:0
02.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
25.05.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze	1:0
Polish Cup
05.12.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.12.23	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
20.05.23	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1
05.11.22	Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze	1:4

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