Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 10 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Pogoń Szczecin		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.42	5.75	5.25	Watch
	1.38	5	7
	1.4	4.75	7	Watch
	1.42	5.13	6.9
	1.43	4.96	6.71	Watch
	1.33	4.75	7
	1.39	4.9	7.06	Watch
	1.4	4.75	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.31)	5 ↓ (5.49)	6.74 ↓ (8.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
67.3%

Draw
18.8%

Stal Mielec
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.5%

17.1%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75%

16.3%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Szczecin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 23. Zech B. (C) 4. Leo Borges 32. Koutris L. 19. Lukasiak K. 8. Ulvestad F. 22. Bichakhchyan V. 20. Gorgon A. 7. Kurzawa R. 51. Paryzek P.	1. Kochalski M. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 27. Jaunzems A. 8. Hinokio K. 6. Guillaumier M. 11. Wolkowicz K. 10. Domanski M. (C) 17. Shkurin I. 32. Gerbowski F.
Substitutes
11. Bak M. 21. Gamboa J. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 27. Korczakowski O. 13. Lis J. 25. Lisowski W. 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.	9. Assayag R. 33. Bukowski A. 96. Dadok R. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 22. Rafa Santos 37. Stepien M. 16. Szady M. 19. Tkacz D. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Gustafsson J.	Kieres K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Guillaumier M. 🟨,
27', Ulvestad F. 🟨,
30', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Wolkowicz K. 🟨,
65', Paryzek P. ↓, Przyborek A. ↑,
71', Gerbowski F. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
74', Shkurin I. 🟨,
83', Kurzawa R. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
83', Lukasiak K. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
83', Wahlqvist L. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
85', 1 - 0, Gorgon A. ⚽,
88', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Lisowski W. ↑,
88', Domanski M. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
90', Wlazlo P. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
90', Jaunzems A. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 2.

Pogoń Szczecin is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stal Mielec is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Pogoń Szczecin is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Przyborek A. (Injury) Wedrychowski M. (Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Pogoń Szczecin won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
20.07.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Korona Kielce	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Kotwica Kołobrzeg	3:0 ✺
29.06.24	Baník Ostrava - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTWWW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Stal Mielec - GKS Katowice	0:1 ✺
22.07.24	Stal Mielec - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.24	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	0:5 ✺
06.07.24	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
17.05.24	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0
25.11.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	2:3
22.04.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	4:2
07.10.22	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	4:2
18.02.22	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1
21.08.21	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	4:1
25.04.21	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0

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