Match Info

Division 1 - Round 5

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion ŁKS (Lodz)

Referee: Jenda M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	ŁKS Łódź		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.5	3.8
	1.87	3.40	3.70
	1.8	3.7	3.75
	1.83	3.95	3.99
	1.91	3.85	3.56	Watch
	1.8	3.9	3.9
	1.83	3.67	3.98	Watch
	1.79	3.45	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.77)	3.68 ↓ (4.09)	3.8 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ŁKS Łódź
50.6%

Draw
25.1%

Stal Mielec
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

22.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

22%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ŁKS Łódź has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ŁKS Łódź than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 6. Rudol S. (C) 22. Craciun A. 3. Falowski K. 7. Sokol D. 88. Terlecki K. 20. Wysokinski M. 19. Nowakowski K. 37. Keiblinger J. 13. Podlinski K. 9. Arasa A.	99. Gostomski M. (G) 2. Kukulowicz B. 94. Kwiecien B. 44. Puerto I. 23. Getinger K. (C) 19. Gmur T. 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Koscielny K. 78. Cybulski K. 7. Cebula M. 90. Kruszelnicki P.
Substitutes
11. Blachewicz M. 1. Bomba L. (G) 4. Farbiszewski B. 8. Hinokio K. 27. Krykun S. 21. Kupczak M. 18. Siwek A. 10. Strzalek I. 5. Wiech L.	41. Chrapusta P. (G) 5. Matynia H. 70. Musiolik S. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 47. Oure S. 77. Sadlocha K. 6. Sommerfeld K. 38. Wyparlo M. 20. Ziobron E.
Coaches
Szoka G.	Skiba D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Arasa A. ⚽,
44', Rudol S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Nowakowski K. ↓, Hinokio K. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Keiblinger J. ⚽,
61', Cebula M. ↓, Oure S. ↑,
67', Sokol D. ↓, Blachewicz M. ↑,
67', Wysokinski M. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
67', Gerbowski F. ↓, Wyparlo M. ↑,
67', Gmur T. ↓, Niedzwiedz N. ↑,
68', 3 - 0, Podlinski K. ⚽,
74', Rudol S. ↓, Farbiszewski B. ↑,
75', 4 - 0, Arasa A. ⚽,
75', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Musiolik S. ↑,
75', Getinger K. ↓, Matynia H. ↑,
79', Arasa A. ↓, Siwek A. ↑,
86', Kwiecien B. 🟨,
86', Siwek A. 🟨,
89', Kukulowicz B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ŁKS won 4.

ŁKS is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Stal Mielec has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Stal Mielec may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Stal Mielec has had a series of home games.

In this match, ŁKS is seen as the favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, ŁKS won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, ŁKS won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 2:1.6).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

LKS Lodz: 8.11% Stal Mielec: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	LKS Lodz	9	4	3	2	13:9	4	15
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 3.64 are the expected chance of winning is 25.35%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ŁKS Łódź
Polish Division 1
16.08.26	ŁKS Łódź - Termalica Nieciecza	2:1 ✺
09.08.26	ŁKS Łódź - Chrobry Głogów	1:2 ✺
31.07.26	ŁKS Łódź - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Pogoń Siedlce - ŁKS Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Radomiak Radom - ŁKS Łódź	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWTW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
16.08.26	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	5:2 ✺
08.08.26	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Stal Mielec - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	3:3 ✺
26.07.26	Unia Skierniewice - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Stal Mielec - Avia Świdnik	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
23.02.26	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	1:2
15.08.25	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	2:0
Club Friendly
05.07.25	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	0:0
06.07.24	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	3:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.05.24	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	3:2
28.02.24	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	1:0
Club Friendly
27.06.23	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	2:1

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