Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Bialystok)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5	Watch
	1.53	4.4	5.25
	1.53	4.5	5	Watch
	1.54	4.62	5.8
	1.54	4.56	5.48	Watch
	1.4	4.5	6
	1.51	4.45	5.6	Watch
	1.53	4.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.53)	4.5 ↑ (3.85)	5.39 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
61.9%

Draw
20.8%

Stal Mielec
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

23.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

22.6%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 16. Sacek M. 4. Haliti J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 44. Moutinho J. 8. Nene 39. Nguiamba A. 20. Villar Miki 11. Imaz J. 99. Hansen K. 10. Pululu A.	1. Kochalski M. (G) 3. Esselink B. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 27. Jaunzems A. 18. Wlazlo P. 6. Guillaumier M. 11. Wolkowicz K. 10. Domanski M. (C) 8. Hinokio K. 17. Shkurin I.
Substitutes
9. Diaby-Fadiga L. 17. Dieguez A. 14. Kubicki J. 7. Marczuk D. 19. Olszewski P. 6. Romanczuk T. 51. Rybak A. 3. Stojinovic D. 1. Stryjek M. (G)	9. Assayag R. 33. Bukowski A. 32. Gerbowski F. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 22. Rafa Santos 37. Stepien M. 16. Szady M. 19. Tkacz D. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Kieres K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
31', Pululu A. 🟨,
44', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', Gerbowski F. 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Imaz J. ⚽,
69', Hansen K. (Pen),
90', Marczuk D. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 2.

Jagiellonia is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Stal Mielec is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Jagiellonia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Jagiellonia is the unquestionable favorite.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Jagiellonia to win the game is with odds 1.42.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Jagiellonia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
UEFA Champions League
31.07.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Panevėžys	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.24	Radomiak Radom - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.07.24	Panevėžys - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:4 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.07.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.24	Stal Mielec - GKS Katowice	0:1 ✺
22.07.24	Stal Mielec - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.24	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	0:5 ✺
06.07.24	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
29.06.24	Stal Mielec - Sandecja Nowy Sącz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
04.05.24	Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:2
03.11.23	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	4:0
03.04.23	Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
12.09.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	4:0
04.03.22	Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1
11.09.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	1:1
21.04.21	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	3:3

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