Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Futbal Tatran Aréna (Prešov)

Referee: Ostling J. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hungary	Duna World / M4 Sport +, M4 Sport


	Polissya Zhytomyr		Paksi SE

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3
	2.08	3.45	3.15	Watch
	2.17	3.46	3.19
	2.16	3.28	3.31	Watch
	2.12	3.51	3.49	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.65)	3.36 ↑ (3.25)	3.11 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polissya Zhytomyr
42.2%

Draw
27.8%

Paksi SE
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

28.6%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

28.3%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polissya Zhytomyr has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Polissya Zhytomyr's performance.

Paksi SE has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paksi SE might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polissya Zhytomyr than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Polissya Zhytomyr that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paksi SE than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paksi SE could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	29.4%	23.5%

Polissya Zhytomyr - Paksi SE Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Polissya will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Paks will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Polissya: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Polissya (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Paks (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Paks (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Polissya (votes: 3 - 30%). Paks (votes: 3 - 30%). Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Volynets Y. (G) 4. Kravchenko M. 5. Sarapiy E. 13. Beskorovaynyi D. 15. Mykhaylichenko B. 30. Lednev B. 8. Babenko R. (C) 18. Andriyevski O. 11. Gutsulyak O. 9. Filippov O. 55. Krushynskyi B.	1. Kovacsik A. (G) 30. Szabo J. (C) 2. Kinyik A. 5. Vecsei B. 17. Hinora K. 21. Papp K. 8. Balogh B. 22. Windecker J. 20. Zeke M. 10. Haraszti Z. 29. Toth B.
Substitutes
44. Chobotenko S. 89. Gayduchyk M. 40. Goncalves A. 2. Hadroj A. 1. Kudryk O. (G) 60. Melnychenko M. 50. Mykytyuk Y. 7. Nazarenko O. 6. Talles Costa 99. Uliganets V. (G) 10. Yosefi T.	13. Bode D. 3. Debreceni A. 18. Gyurkits G. 9. Hahn J. 19. Horvath K. 11. Osvath A. 23. Peto M. 14. Silye E. 25. Simon B. (G) 26. Szekszardi M. 15. Szendrei A.
Coaches
Rotan R.	Bognar G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', Sarapiy E. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Andriyevski O. ⚽, Krushynskyi B. (A),
45+1', 2 - 0, Beskorovaynyi D. ⚽, Lednev B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Balogh B. ↓, Osvath A. ↑,
46', Haraszti Z. ↓, Hahn J. ↑,
49', Krushynskyi B. 🟨,
58', 3 - 0, Lednev B. ⚽, Krushynskyi B. (A),
64', Filippov O. ↓, Gayduchyk M. ↑,
64', Krushynskyi B. ↓, Nazarenko O. ↑,
64', Toth B. ↓, Bode D. ↑,
71', Hinora K. ↓, Horvath K. ↑,
78', Lednev B. ↓, Yosefi T. ↑,
78', Andriyevski O. ↓, Talles Costa ↑,
81', Papp K. ↓, Szekszardi M. ↑,
88', Kravchenko M. ↓, Hadroj A. ↑,
90+2', Mykhaylichenko B. 🟥,
90+5', Kinyik A. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Futbal Tatran Aréna.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Paks may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Polissya has had a series of away games.

Polissya might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Polissya Zhytomyr - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 35.03%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polissya Zhytomyr
Ukrainian Premier League
03.08.25	Karpaty Lviv - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	FC Santa Coloma - Polissya Zhytomyr	1:4 ✺
24.07.25	Polissya Zhytomyr - FC Santa Coloma	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.07.25	Puskás Academy - Polissya Zhytomyr	1:1 ✺
12.07.25	Sturm Graz - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWLTT
- Paksi SE
Hungarian NB I
03.08.25	Kisvárda - Paksi SE	1:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Maribor - Paksi SE	1:1 ✺
Hungarian NB I
27.07.25	Paksi SE - Győri ETO	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.07.25	Paksi SE - Maribor	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
17.07.25	CFR Cluj - Paksi SE	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTWL

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