Match Info

Division 1 - Round 33

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Polonii (Warsaw)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Polonia Warsaw		Wisła Kraków

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.75	Watch
	2.18	3.65	2.88	Watch
	2.28	3.75	3.03
	2.15	3.94	2.9
	2.2	3.3	2.8
	2.11	3.67	3.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.37)	3.65 ↓ (3.81)	2.91 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Warsaw
42.4%

Draw
25.5%

Wisła Kraków
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

24.1%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

23.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Wisła Kraków has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Wisła Kraków might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wisła Kraków than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wisła Kraków could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Polonia Warsaw - Wisła Kraków Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Polonia will win (votes: 14 - 87.5%). Wisła will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Polonia: 71.3% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Wisła (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia (votes: 1 - 50%). Wisła (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Kuchta M. (C) 24. Terpilowski E. 3. Salihu H. 16. Budnicki J. 99. Durmus I. 26. Gnaase D. 7. Vega D. 23. Skrabb S. 44. Piotrowski B. 17. Dadok R. 9. Zjawinski L.	28. Letkiewicz P. (G) 34. Giger R. 50. Kutwa M. 29. Grujcic D. 2. Lelieveld J. 41. Duda K. 12. Igbekeme J. 10. Duarte F. 7. Ertlthaler J. (C) 17. Bozic M. 99. Sanchez J.
Substitutes
20. Brasido D. 77. Buksa A. 5. Hoxhallari E. 97. Janasik P. 90. Kostorz K. 1. Sandach A. (G) 4. Szur P. 19. Vasin N. 8. Wojciechowski O.	97. Biedrzycki W. 8. Carbo M. 31. Chichkan A. (G) 5. Colley J. 52. Krzyzanowski J. 51. Kuziemka M. 4. Mikulec R. 11. Nikaj A. 20. Omic E.
Coaches
Pawlak M.	Jop M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Kutwa M. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Bozic M. ⚽, Duarte F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Piotrowski B. ↓, Wojciechowski O. ↑,
60', Dadok R. ↓, Janasik P. ↑,
63', Grujcic D. ↓, Biedrzycki W. ↑,
66', Bozic M. ↓, Krzyzanowski J. ↑,
66', Igbekeme J. ↓, Carbo M. ↑,
74', Terpilowski E. ↓, Brasido D. ↑,
77', Sanchez J. ↓, Kuziemka M. ↑,
77', Duda K. ↓, Omic E. ↑,
81', Skrabb S. ↓, Kostorz K. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ekstraklasa).

Wisła is Qualified for Ekstraklasa

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 3.

Recent performances by Polonia have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wisła is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Polonia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Polonia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 2:1.8).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Polonia Warszawa: 6.76%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Polonia Warszawa	9	4	2	3	15:12	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Polonia Warsaw - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 38.68%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
10.05.26	Polonia Warsaw - Górnik Łęczna	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Polonia Bytom - Polonia Warsaw	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Polonia Warsaw - Chrobry Głogów	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Stal Rzeszów - Polonia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
10.04.26	Polonia Warsaw - Śląsk Wrocław	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWL
- Wisła Kraków
Polish Division 1
08.05.26	Wisła Kraków - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Stal Rzeszów - Wisła Kraków	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	Wisła Kraków - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Ruch Chorzów - Wisła Kraków	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Polonia Bytom - Wisła Kraków	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
08.11.25	Wisła Kraków - Polonia Warsaw	1:2
06.12.24	Polonia Warsaw - Wisła Kraków	2:0
Polish Cup
03.12.24	Polonia Warsaw - Wisła Kraków	3:2 ET
Polish Division 1
28.07.24	Wisła Kraków - Polonia Warsaw	0:0
17.12.23	Wisła Kraków - Polonia Warsaw	2:1
Polish Cup
07.11.23	Wisła Kraków - Polonia Warsaw	3:0
Polish Division 1
30.07.23	Polonia Warsaw - Wisła Kraków	2:3

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