Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 20

Date: 2 February 2025, Sunday


	Polvorín		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.85	2.05
	3.5	2.95	2.1
	3.52	2.72	2.2
	3.67	2.93	2.11	Watch
	3.54	3.03	2.19
	3.5	2.95	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↓ (4.16)	2.91 ↓ (3.22)	2.13 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polvorín
25.8%

Draw
31.4%

UD Ourense
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

28.3%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

27.9%

50.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polvorín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UD Ourense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polvorín than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD Ourense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Polvorín - UD Ourense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 2 - 1, Barbosa J. ⚽,
76', 🟥,
84', 2 - 2, Guisande A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Polvorín is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

UD Ourense is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match UD Ourense is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Polvorín won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 13:7 (average 3.3:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Polvorín won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:2 (average 4.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polvorín FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
19.01.25	Polvorín - Barbadás	2:0 ✺
12.01.25	RC Villalbes - Polvorín	1:0 ✺
22.12.24	Polvorín - Noia	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Viveiro - Polvorín	1:3 ✺
06.12.24	Polvorín - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWWL
- UD Ourense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
19.01.25	Noia - UD Ourense	1:2 ✺
12.01.25	Viveiro - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	UD Ourense - Sarriana	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Alondras - UD Ourense	0:4 ✺
08.12.24	UD Ourense - Silva SD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
22.09.24	UD Ourense - Polvorín	3:2
28.03.24	Polvorín - UD Ourense	4:2
29.10.23	UD Ourense - Polvorín	2:2
17.11.19	Polvorín - UD Ourense	5:0

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