Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Referee: Garcia M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Ponferradina		Mirandés

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.10	2.70
	2.45	3.10	2.60
	2.60	2.95	2.55
	2.62	3.00	3.01
	2.64	3.2	2.64	Watch
	2.55	2.70	2.95
	2.48	3.23	2.81
	2.40	3.05	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.62)	3.04 ↓ (3.13)	2.74 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
36.4%

Draw
30.1%

Mirandés
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

29.4%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Mirandés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Ponferradina - Mirandés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dominguez A. (G) 24. Koke 2. Andujar D. (C) 4. Jelbat A. 3. Nieto S. 6. San Emeterio F. 10. Valle B. 7. Calderon C. 8. Molina A. 18. de Leon J. 15. Vacas O.	1. Ruiz J. (G) 22. Aguirregabiria M. 21. Arambarri A. 4. Navarro C. 3. Arrillaga H. 16. Lozano M. (C) 8. Martinez R. 19. Riki 9. Unzueta I. 7. de la Iglesia D. 11. Uzkudun A.
Substitutes
25. Abedzadeh A. (G) 14. Aranda J. L. 11. Bari Q. 17. Chibozo J. 21. Faye S. 22. Hernandez E. 19. Munoz P. 23. Roig A. 12. Sabroso U. 9. Slavy 16. Tounkara N. 5. Undabarrena E.	14. Auria M. 13. Badia E. (G) 23. Dorrio J. 10. Espinosa N. 12. Gonzalez J. 15. Pedernales I. 17. Perez P. 18. Rodri 5. Rodriguez P. 6. Verde A.
Coaches
Nafti M.	Muneta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Molina A. 🟨,
20', Navarro C. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Valle B. (Penalty Awarded),
42', Jelbat A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', de Leon J. ↓, Bari Q. ↑,
56', Vacas O. ↓, Faye S. ↑,
59', Navarro C. ↓, Espinosa N. ↑,
59', Martinez R. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
65', de la Iglesia D. ↓, Dorrio J. ↑,
69', Rodriguez P. 🟨,
76', Arambarri A. ↓, Verde A. ↑,
76', Uzkudun A. ↓, Rodri ↑,
79', Molina A. ↓, Munoz P. ↑,
79', Calderon C. ↓, Tounkara N. ↑,
89', Nieto S. 🟨,
90+2', Nieto S. ↓, Roig A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 9th and 5th in the Promotion - Primera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponferradina won 2.

Ponferradina has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Mirandés shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Ponferradina has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:15 (averaging 1.1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ponferradina against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 1.5:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11
6	Mirandes	6	3	1	2	9:7	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Ponferradina - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.22%, but this team recently wins 62% of matches with these odds.

Mirandés - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 35.35%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.26	Pontevedra - Ponferradina	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Ponferradina - Mérida AD	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	UD Ourense - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWLTW
- CD Mirandés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.09.26	Mirandés - Unionistas de Salamanca	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Real Unión de Irun - Mirandés	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Mérida AD - Mirandés	3:4 ✺
05.09.26	Mirandés - UD Ourense	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Cacereño - Mirandés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
26.03.23	Ponferradina - Mirandés	0:0
17.12.22	Mirandés - Ponferradina	2:1
27.03.22	Mirandés - Ponferradina	3:1
05.12.21	Ponferradina - Mirandés	2:1
19.02.21	Ponferradina - Mirandés	1:0
03.10.20	Mirandés - Ponferradina	0:1
21.06.20	Mirandés - Ponferradina	1:2

Upcoming Matches