Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 25

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Portimão (Portimão)


	Portimonense B		Lagoa

	1	X	2
	4.25	3.45	1.7
	3.99	3.66	1.7
	4.15	3.73	1.71	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.67
	4.89	3.58	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.36 ↑ (3.19)	3.54 ↑ (3.15)	1.68 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portimonense B
20.7%

Draw
25.5%

Lagoa
53.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

29%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

28.1%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portimonense B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portimonense B's form might have worsened.

Lagoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lagoa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portimonense B than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portimonense B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lagoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Portimonense B - Lagoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)
77', 1 - 0, ⚽,
88', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Portimonense B is Relegated to

Portimonense B is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lagoa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Lagoa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Portimonense B won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portimonense B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
04.04.26	Portimonense B - Atlético da Malveira	0:3 ✺
29.03.26	Alverca B - Portimonense B	4:0 ✺
22.03.26	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Portimonense B	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Portimonense B - Moncarapachense	0:3 ✺
08.03.26	Comércio e Indústria - Portimonense B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLTLW
- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
04.04.26	Oriental - Lagoa	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Lagoa - Atlético da Malveira	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Alverca B - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lagoa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Elvas - Lagoa	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.12.25	Lagoa - Portimonense B	2:1

Portimonense B - Lagoa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide