Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 20

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino (Elvas)


	Elvas		Lagoa

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.2	3.95
	1.76	3.21	4.44
	1.79	3.31	4.33	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4
	1.78	3.22	4.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.94)	3.17 ↓ (3.33)	4.22 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elvas
50.1%

Draw
28.5%

Lagoa
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elvas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Lagoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elvas than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Elvas - Lagoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
68', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+3', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation and 6).

Elvas has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Lagoa has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elvas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Elvas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Elvas - the odds 1.94 are the expected chance of winning is 47.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- O Elvas CAD
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
22.02.26	Elvas - Juventude de Évora	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Louletano - Elvas	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Elvas - Sintrense	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Portimonense B - Elvas	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Elvas - Atlético da Malveira	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLLTL
- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
22.02.26	Lagoa - Moncarapachense	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Juventude de Évora - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Lagoa - Comércio e Indústria	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Louletano - Lagoa	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
25.10.25	Lagoa - Elvas	2:2

Elvas - Lagoa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide