Match Info

NWSL Women

Date: 20 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Providence Park (Portland, OR)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Usa	CBS Sports Network, NWSL+, Victory+


	Portland Thorns		Bay FC

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.5	3.95	Watch
	1.76	3.64	4.01
	1.75	3.87	4.03	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4
	1.71	3.6	4.18	Watch
	1.55	3.6	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.55)	3.59 ↓ (3.6)	4.25 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portland Thorns
53.2%

Draw
25.3%

Bay FC
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

23.5%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portland Thorns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Bay FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portland Thorns than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Portland Thorns, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bay FC than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bay FC, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Portland Thorns - Bay FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Arnold M. (G) 2. Reyes R. 5. Obaze I. 16. Hiatt S. (C) 25. Vignola M. 21. Fleming J. 6. Bogere C. 23. Muller M. 19. Tordin P. 26. Alidou d'Anjou M. 9. Wilson S.	29. Silkowitz J. (G) 16. Collins S. (C) 22. Courtnall B. 18. Anderson J. 25. Denton A. 8. Hutton C. 41. Bebar H. 7. Huff T. 19. Bailey D. 9. Kundananji R. 10. Girelli C.
Substitutes
4. Calzada C. 10. Castellanos D. 15. Harvey S. 40. Immethun J. 41. Lyles R. 29. Mckenzie M. 35. Messner M. (G) 11. Padelski M. 24. Perry J.	32. Allen E. (G) 12. Boade T. 21. Cometti A. 23. Conti C. 6. Gamero O. 11. Hubly K. 5. Lema K. 24. Moreau M. 14. Shepherd J.
Coaches
Vilahamn R.	Coates E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Vignola M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Bailey D. ↓, Conti C. ↑,
46', Girelli C. ↓, Lema K. ↑,
60', Courtnall B. ↓, Cometti A. ↑,
65', Cometti A. 🟨,
66', Alidou d'Anjou M. ↓, Mckenzie M. ↑,
72', Kundananji R. ↓, Hubly K. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Mckenzie M. ⚽, Wilson S. (A),
86', Denton A. ↓, Moreau M. ↑,
86', Bogere C. ↓, Immethun J. ↑,
86', Tordin P. ↓, Harvey S. ↑,
87', Muller M. ↓, Lyles R. ↑,
90', Mckenzie M. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NWSL Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Portland Thorns is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Bay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Portland Thorns may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Portland Thorns is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Portland Thorns won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Portland Thorns won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Portland Thorns W	27	12	7	8	45:39	6	43
14	Bay FC W	27	7	5	15	28:42	-14	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portland Thorns
NWSL
17.05.26	Portland Thorns - Angel City	0:0 ✺
08.05.26	Racing Louisville - Portland Thorns	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Chicago Stars - Portland Thorns	0:2 ✺
29.04.26	Portland Thorns - San Diego Wave	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Angel City - Portland Thorns	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWWW
- Bay FC
NWSL
15.05.26	Bay FC - Boston Legacy	1:1 ✺
10.05.26	Bay FC - Utah Royals	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	San Diego Wave - Bay FC	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	NJ NY Gotham - Bay FC	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	Bay FC - Washington Spirit	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

NWSL
04.10.25	Portland Thorns - Bay FC	2:1
07.06.25	Bay FC - Portland Thorns	1:0
30.08.24	Portland Thorns - Bay FC	1:3
01.05.24	Bay FC - Portland Thorns	2:3

Portland Thorns - Bay FC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide