Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes (Vila Nova de Gaia)

Referee: Neves G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Porto Canal


	Porto B		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.45
	2.68	3.15	2.52
	2.84	3.3	2.61
	2.48	3.49	2.62	Watch
	2.72	3.14	2.54
	2.71	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.48)	3.21 ↓ (3.49)	2.54 ↓ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto B
34.5%

Draw
28.9%

Lusitânia
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

26.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

26.1%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto B than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Porto B - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Porto B will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto B (votes: 2 - 50%). Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Lusitânia (2.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto B (votes: 2 - 40%). Lusitânia (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Ribeiro G. (G) 76. Rodrigues D. 44. Felipe Silva 73. Bras G. (C) 80. Henrique Kaio 56. Kaue Rodrigues 25. Perez T. 88. Andrade D. 75. Karamoh Y. 79. Vonic L. 87. Caicedo B.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 5. Silverio (C) 4. Collard D. 3. Josue Sa 16. Rocha L. 27. Fabinho 88. Teixeira M. 11. Pereira M. 60. Danny 12. Arsenio 20. Do Marcolino F.
Substitutes
51. Fernandes D. (G) 43. Melnichenko T. 72. Miranda A. 68. Oliveira A. 46. Pedro Lima 54. Ribeiro A. 58. Silva T. 49. Sousa G. 92. Teixeira J.	29. Cerveira T. 22. Faria B. 21. Joao Vasco 80. Manel 7. Martins R. 33. Ortiz N. 19. Palacios A. 1. Ricardo M. (G) 77. Tiago Dias
Coaches
Brandao J.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Fabinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Rodrigues D. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
46', Caicedo B. ↓, Pedro Lima ↑,
54', 1 - 0, Karamoh Y. ⚽,
59', 1 - 1, Fabinho ⚽,
61', Do Marcolino F. ↓, Tiago Dias ↑,
63', Perez T. ↓, Teixeira J. ↑,
65', Rocha L. 🟨,
71', Felipe Silva 🟨,
72', Karamoh Y. ↓, Melnichenko T. ↑,
73', Danny 🟨,
77', Danny ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
77', Teixeira M. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
77', Felipe Silva 🟨,
79', Vonic L. ↓, Ribeiro A. ↑,
83', Pereira M. 🟨,
85', 1 - 2, Joao Vasco ⚽,
86', Miranda A. 🟨,
87', Rocha L. 🟨,
88', Silverio 🟨,
90', Fabinho ↓, Faria B. ↑,
90+5', Arsenio 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Recent performances by Porto B have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lusitânia is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Lusitânia - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.62%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Porto B
Portuguese Liga 2
23.11.25	Porto B - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Chaves - Porto B	0:1 ✺
29.10.25	Oliveirense - Porto B	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Porto B - Marítimo	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Porto B - Torreense	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWLWL
- Lusitânia FC
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Lusitânia - Torreense	0:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1 ✺
04.11.25	Académico de Viseu - Lusitânia	3:2 ✺
29.10.25	Lusitânia - Vizela	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLTL

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