Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 9

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday


	Portugalete		Santurtzi

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.7	4.55
	1.03	11.78	25.00	Watch
	1.59	3.72	4.93
	1.39	4.4	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.39)	5.9 ↑ (4.4)	10.27 ↑ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portugalete
72.8%

Draw
17.3%

Santurtzi
9.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.5%

20.7%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

19.9%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portugalete's performance.

Santurtzi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santurtzi than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Portugalete - Santurtzi Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Escobar M. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Fernandez M. ⚽,
32', 2 - 1, Llamazares I. ⚽,
37', 3 - 1, Llamazares I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', 4 - 1, Perez A. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 3.

Portugalete is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Santurtzi's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Santurtzi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Portugalete is the clear favorite.

We predict that Portugalete will win today's game, with odds of 1.36.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Portugalete won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Portugalete won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Portugalete
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Portugalete - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
26.10.25	Real Sociedad C - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1 ✺
12.10.25	Lagun Onak - Portugalete	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 38.5 WWLWW
- CD Santurtzi
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
26.10.25	Santurtzi - San Ignacio	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Derio - Santurtzi	3:0 ✺
11.10.25	Santurtzi - Touring KE	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Santurtzi - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Leioa - Santurtzi	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.02.25	Portugalete - Santurtzi	2:2
13.10.24	Santurtzi - Portugalete	0:2
23.02.20	Portugalete - Santurtzi	1:0
29.09.19	Santurtzi - Portugalete	1:3
11.05.19	Portugalete - Santurtzi	1:1
23.12.18	Santurtzi - Portugalete	0:3
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
05.05.18	Portugalete - Santurtzi	0:0

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