Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday


	Real Sociedad C		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.05
	3.58	3.04	2.12	Watch
	3.47	3.02	2.09
	3.3	3.05	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.9)	3.03 ↑ (2.94)	2.1 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Sociedad C
26.5%

Draw
30.1%

Portugalete
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

31%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

30.8%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Sociedad C has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portugalete's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Sociedad C than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portugalete, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Real Sociedad C - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Perez Alvarez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', 🟥,
69', 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Real Sociedad C has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Portugalete is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Portugalete may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Sociedad C won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Sociedad C won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Sociedad C - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Sociedad C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
19.10.25	San Ignacio - Real Sociedad C	2:3 ✺
12.10.25	Real Sociedad C - Derio	0:2 ✺
28.09.25	Real Sociedad C - Alavés C	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Real Sociedad C	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Real Sociedad C - Leioa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WLWWL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.10.25	Portugalete - Pasaia	0:1 ✺
12.10.25	Lagun Onak - Portugalete	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	San Ignacio - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Portugalete - Derio	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
15.01.20	Portugalete - Real Sociedad C	1:0
25.08.19	Real Sociedad C - Portugalete	1:1
24.03.19	Portugalete - Real Sociedad C	3:1
03.11.18	Real Sociedad C - Portugalete	3:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
29.03.18	Portugalete - Real Sociedad C	1:0

Upcoming Matches