Match Info

Serie D - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)


	Portuguesa RJ		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	3.22	2.98	2.24
	3.23	3.02	2.24	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.2
	3.22	2.92	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↑ (2.76)	2.93 ↑ (2.92)	2.23 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portuguesa RJ
28.4%

Draw
30.9%

Portuguesa
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

31.5%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

32.8%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portuguesa RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portuguesa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portuguesa RJ than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Portuguesa RJ - Portuguesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Lohan ⚽,
30', 1 - 1, Matheus Cadorini ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Portuguesa RJ is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Portuguesa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Portuguesa has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portuguesa RJ
Copa do Brasil
11.03.26	Paysandu - Portuguesa RJ	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.26	Portuguesa RJ - Maricá	5:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.26	Portuguesa RJ - Maracanã	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
02.03.26	Portuguesa RJ - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWWT
- Portuguesa SP
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Portuguesa - Paysandu	2:3 ✺
10.03.26	Portuguesa - Avaí	2:1 penalties ✺
26.02.26	Portuguesa - Altos	5:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Portuguesa - Corinthians	1:2 penalties ✺
15.02.26	Mirassol - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWLW

Portuguesa RJ - Portuguesa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide