Match Info

Paulista - Round 8

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	Mirassol		Portuguesa

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	6.5	Watch
	1.55	3.75	5.7
	1.5	4.05	6.83
	1.58	3.85	5.88	Watch
	1.5	3.6	6
	1.49	3.75	6.18
	1.62	3.6	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.53)	3.76 ↑ (3.68)	6.16 ↑ (6.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
60.2%

Draw
24.7%

Portuguesa
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

25%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

27%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Portuguesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portuguesa than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Mirassol - Portuguesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 77. Alesson 14. Igor Carius 34. Joao Victor 21. Jose Aldo 26. Lucas Mugni 9. Nathan Fogaca 11. Negueba 25. Neto Moura 6. Reinaldo (C) 3. Willian Machado	1. Bruno Bertinato (G) 17. Caio Roque 39. Carlos Eduardo 7. Ewerthon 10. Gabriel Pires (C) 3. Gustavo Henrique 2. Joao Vitor 19. Maceio 25. Matheus Cecchini 21. Rene 8. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 27. Galeano A. 2. Lucas Oliveira 70. Rodrigo Rodrigues 97. Rodrigues 7. Shaylon 12. Victor Luis 5. Yuri Lara	11. Cauari 27. Denis 22. Eduardo Biazus 33. Eric Botteghin 42. Gustavo Sciencia 5. Hudson 13. Igor Torres 12. Joao Paulo (G) 30. Kaue 14. Marcelo Freitas 9. Matheus Cadorini 15. Wellington

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Negueba ⚽, Neto Moura (A),
20', Joao Vitor 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Maceio ⚽, Caio Roque (A),
29', Igor Carius ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
33', Reinaldo ↓, Victor Luis ↑,
45+5', Jose Aldo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Alesson ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
46', Jose Aldo ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
58', Bruno Bertinato 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Ewerthon ⚽, Gabriel Pires (A),
68', Joao Vitor ↓, Cauari ↑,
68', Rene ↓, Matheus Cadorini ↑,
69', Cauari 🟨,
75', Matheus Cecchini 🟨,
76', Lucas Mugni ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,
79', Ewerthon ↓, Gustavo Sciencia ↑,
80', Caio Roque ↓, Eric Botteghin ↑,
85', Matheus Cecchini ↓, Hudson ↑,
90', Joao Victor 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Mirassol has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portuguesa is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Portuguesa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mirassol is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Daniel Borges (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Portuguesa: Lucas Hipolito (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Eduardo (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Remo - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Mirassol - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLTTW
- Portuguesa SP
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Portuguesa - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	EC Primavera - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
26.01.26	Portuguesa - Guarani	0:1 ✺
21.01.26	São Paulo - Portuguesa	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Portuguesa - Velo Clube	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.01.25	Mirassol - Portuguesa	2:1
02.03.24	Portuguesa - Mirassol	1:0
05.03.23	Mirassol - Portuguesa	1:2

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