Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Relegation - Semi-finals

Date: 8 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sokoine Stadium (Mbeya)


	Prisons		Mbeya City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.10	4.33
	1.98	3.05	3.6
	2.08	2.9	3.49
	2.16	3.01	3.43	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.34
	1.97	3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.8)	3.03 ↓ (3.15)	3.79 ↓ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Prisons
46%

Draw
30%

Mbeya City
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28.9%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

30.9%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Prisons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Mbeya City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Prisons than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Prisons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mbeya City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Prisons - Mbeya City Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Prisons will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Mbeya City will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
	18. Dondola S. (G)
	10. Ambokile E. (C)
	26. Buha A.
	33. Kijili K.
	54. Lidah H.
	19. Msuya R.
	17. Mwani W.
	15. Mwasa D.
	16. Naushad S.
	28. Pemba K.
	5. Seleman Mbegu Y.
Substitutes
	2. Ame I.
	42. Dilunga H.
	14. Lukandamila D.
	20. Majimengi H.
	60. Maranyingi B.
	. Oden N.
	4. Pillar K.
	25. Ululu H.
	6. Yassin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Prisons won 2.

Recent performances by Prisons have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mbeya City is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Prisons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Prisons is considered a favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Prisons won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Prisons won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	6:4	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tanzania Prisons FC
Tanzanian Premier League
05.07.26	Prisons - Mbeya City	0:2 ✺
18.06.26	JKT Tanzania - Prisons	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Prisons - Dodoma Jiji	3:1 ✺
26.05.26	Pamba - Prisons	2:3 ✺
22.05.26	Azam - Prisons	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26 LWWWL
- Mbeya City FC
Tanzanian Premier League
05.07.26	Prisons - Mbeya City	0:2 ✺
27.06.26	Dodoma Jiji - Mbeya City	1:1 ✺
24.06.26	Pamba - Mbeya City	0:2 ✺
17.06.26	Mbeya City - Simba	0:1 ✺
13.06.26	Mbeya City - Mtibwa Sugar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
05.07.26	Prisons - Mbeya City	0:2
04.05.26	Prisons - Mbeya City	1:2
21.10.25	Mbeya City - Prisons	1:2
25.12.22	Mbeya City - Prisons	1:2
09.09.22	Prisons - Mbeya City	1:1
27.02.22	Prisons - Mbeya City	1:1
28.09.21	Mbeya City - Prisons	1:0

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