Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 28

Date: 24 June 2026, Wednesday

Location: CCM Kirumba Stadium (Mwanza)


	Pamba		Mbeya City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.20	4.20
	1.75	3.15	4.45
	6.22	3.77	1.4
	5.18	3.52	1.64	Watch
	7	3.8	1.4
	2.12	3	3.46
	1.75	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (1.75)	3.36 ↑ (3.1)	3.01 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pamba
30.1%

Draw
33%

Mbeya City
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

28.9%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

25.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pamba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pamba's form might have worsened.

Mbeya City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mbeya City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pamba than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pamba, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mbeya City than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mbeya City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Pamba - Mbeya City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Pamba will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Mbeya City will win (votes: 9 - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mbeya City: 71.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Geoffrey Y. (C) 11. Ibrahim N. 18. Kadikilo A. 36. Kibailo H. 15. Kunambi K. 50. Lukinda E. 2. Mangalo A. 23. Mwashinga J. 10. Nahimana S. 9. Tegisi M. 14. Yonta Camara A.	30. Mussa H. (G) 10. Ambokile E. (C) 26. Buha A. 42. Dilunga H. 24. Kassim M. I. 54. Lidah H. 60. Maranyingi B. 19. Msuya R. 17. Mwani W. 28. Pemba K. 5. Seleman Mbegu Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Ambokile E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+10', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 15 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Pamba has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mbeya City's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Pamba is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mbeya City	6	3	1	2	6:4	2	10
16	Pamba	6	0	1	5	4:13	-9	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pamba SC
Tanzanian Premier League
18.06.26	Pamba - Mtibwa Sugar	4:0 ✺
14.06.26	Simba - Pamba	2:1 ✺
26.05.26	Pamba - Prisons	2:3 ✺
20.05.26	Kinondoni MC - Pamba	0:1 ✺
14.05.26	Azam - Pamba	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWL
- Mbeya City FC
Tanzanian Premier League
17.06.26	Mbeya City - Simba	0:1 ✺
13.06.26	Mbeya City - Mtibwa Sugar	1:0 ✺
26.05.26	Singida Black Stars - Mbeya City	4:1 ✺
21.05.26	Namungo - Mbeya City	1:1 ✺
13.05.26	Mbeya City - Coastal Union	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWLTL

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