Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday


	Probiy Horodenka		Feniks-Mariupol

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.20	1.98
	3.45	3.3	1.98
	3.16	3.23	2
	3.81	3.67	1.81	Watch
	3.55	3.32	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.85)	3.34 ↑ (3.3)	1.94 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Probiy Horodenka
26.2%

Draw
27.1%

Feniks-Mariupol
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.4%

40.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

26.4%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Probiy Horodenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Probiy Horodenka's form might have worsened.

Feniks-Mariupol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Feniks-Mariupol's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Probiy Horodenka than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Feniks-Mariupol than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Probiy Horodenka - Feniks Mariupol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Arkhypchuk K. (G) 98. Fesenko A. 13. Galonskyi V. 21. Girnyi M. 16. Guk I. 15. Kharuk R. 30. Lepskyi O. 95. Lopyryonok M. 19. Napuda V. 5. Savchyn V. 7. Savitskyi A.	1. Zhupanskyi V. (G) 15. Chornomorets O. 2. Gagun R. 6. Gunichev Y. 5. Khakhlyov O. 11. Kucherov V. 9. Kyslenko S. 20. Nikolyshyn O. 10. Orikhovskyi P. 29. Remenyak A. 33. Sydorenko V.
Substitutes
12. Barabanov V. (G) 44. Batz M. 56. Borysenko M. 9. Burenko M. 25. Kovalenko M. A. (G) 70. Yaroshenko S.	97. Gerega O. 14. Grytsak N. 7. Kovalyuk R. 8. Kukharuk A. 17. Maletsky P. 12. Oryshchak S. (G) 3. Sydorenko D. 21. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', Kharuk R. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Kyslenko S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
74', 🟥,
87', 0 - 2, Grytsak N. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Druha Liga and 11).

Recent form of Probiy has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Feniks-Mariupol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Probiy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Probiy won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Including home match between the teams, Probiy won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Fenix Mariupol	10	4	3	3	12:11	1	15
16	Probiy Horodenka	10	1	2	7	8:27	-19	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Probiy Horodenka
Ukrainian Cup
09.09.26	Probiy Horodenka - Oleksandriya	1:2 penalties ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
05.09.26	Ahrobiznes Volochysk - Probiy Horodenka	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Probiy Horodenka - Viktoriya Sumy	0:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
21.08.26	Lokomotyv Kyiv - Probiy Horodenka	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
14.08.26	Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk - Probiy Horodenka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLLWL
- Feniks-Mariupol
Ukrainian Cup
09.09.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Zorya Luhansk	0:2 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
05.09.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Kulykiv-Bilka	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Lokomotyv Kyiv - Feniks-Mariupol	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
20.08.26	Dinaz Vyshgorod - Feniks-Mariupol	0:6 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
16.08.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Kolos Kovalivka 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
17.05.26	Feniks-Mariupol - Probiy Horodenka	0:0
25.10.25	Probiy Horodenka - Feniks-Mariupol	0:0

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