Match Info

BGL Ligue - Round 28

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Progrès Niedercorn		Differdange 03

	1	X	2
	4.4	3.4	1.66
	4.35	3.4	1.7
	4.38	3.57	1.71
	4.42	3.58	1.72	Watch
	4.33	3.25	1.7
	4.63	3.54	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.42 ↓ (4.65)	3.46 ↓ (3.65)	1.69 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progrès Niedercorn
20.4%

Draw
26.1%

Differdange 03
53.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.3%

24.6%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

23.8%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progrès Niedercorn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Differdange 03 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progrès Niedercorn than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Differdange 03 than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flauss S. (G) 73. Ahmetxjekaj A. 99. Baradji I. 19. Bouche Y. 77. Corral K. (C) 23. Duarte C. 11. Gilgemann M. 28. Guett A. 26. Hend B. 10. Natami O. 27. Peugnet V.	84. Felipe (G) 10. Abreu A. 14. Bedouret J. 5. Brusco T. 4. D'Anzico K. 25. Franzoni G. (C) 23. Hadji S. 55. Leandro Borges 7. Mfoumou B. 20. Pinto R. 21. Rauch L.
Substitutes
8. Ahmetxhekaj D. 31. Alves Margato J. (G) 17. Camara M. 71. Hoxha F. 29. Oger M. 37. Souchard T. 15. Vion T.	70. Andre Mendy 77. Bei G. 8. Bruninho 9. Buch A. 1. Da Costa E. (G) 66. Gomes Ricciulli J. P. 39. Jakobi L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Pinto R. 🟨,
18', Leandro Borges 🟨,
20', Gilgemann M. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Natami O. ⚽, Baradji I. (A),
45+1', 2 - 0, Hend B. ⚽, Baradji I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
47', 2 - 1, Pinto R. ⚽, Hadji S. (A),
62', Bedouret J. 🟨,
64', Baradji I. ↓, Vion T. ↑,
72', Franzoni G. ↓, Buch A. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Buch A. ⚽, Pinto R. (A),
77', 🟨,
82', Bouche Y. ↓, Ahmetxhekaj D. ↑,
82', Gilgemann M. ↓, Hoxha F. ↑,
83', Pinto R. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
85', Natami O. 🟨,
86', Corral K. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
88', 2 - 3, Bedouret J. ⚽,
89', Hadji S. ↓, Jakobi L. ↑,
89', Hadji S. 🟨,
90+4', Rauch L. 🟨,
90+5', Rauch L. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progrès Niedercorn won 1.

Recent performances by Progrès Niedercorn have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Differdange 03 is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Differdange 03 is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Progrès Niedercorn won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 24:25. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Progrès Niedercorn won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Differdange	11	10	0	1	32:9	23	30
7	Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16:9	7	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Progrès Niedercorn
Luxembourg National Division
03.05.26	Jeunesse Canach - Progrès Niedercorn	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Progrès Niedercorn - Rodange	1:0 ✺
Luxembourg Cup
22.04.26	Atert Bissen - Progrès Niedercorn	1:2 ✺
Luxembourg National Division
18.04.26	Racing Luxembourg - Progrès Niedercorn	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Progrès Niedercorn - Mamer	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWWTT
- Differdange 03
Luxembourg National Division
03.05.26	Differdange 03 - UNA Strassen	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Pétange - Differdange 03	0:1 ✺
Luxembourg Cup
22.04.26	Differdange 03 - Racing Luxembourg	2:0 ✺
Luxembourg National Division
19.04.26	Differdange 03 - Victoria Rosport	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Swift Hesperange - Differdange 03	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Luxembourg National Division
30.11.25	Differdange 03 - Progrès Niedercorn	1:1
01.03.25	Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03	0:2
01.09.24	Differdange 03 - Progrès Niedercorn	1:0
13.05.24	Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03	0:1
Luxembourg Cup
24.04.24	Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03	2:0
Luxembourg National Division
03.12.23	Differdange 03 - Progrès Niedercorn	3:1
06.05.23	Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03	2:0

Progrès Niedercorn - Differdange 03